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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: wzambon 🐝 HONORARY
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Number: of 75974 
Subject: Four Paths
Date: 01/17/26 10:20 PM
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The Four Paths in Front of America
We decide how it shakes out.
CHRISTOPHER ARMITAGE
JAN 17






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Wassmuth Center for Human Rights via AP
The federal government no longer functions as a neutral arbiter between states. It has been captured by a coalition that represents a minority of Americans, a minority of economic output, and a minority of the population, but wields majority power through the Senate, the Electoral College, and a judiciary stacked over decades. Democratic states fund a federal system that has been turned against their residents. They send tax dollars to the federal government and watch them flow to states that suppress voters, gut healthcare, and gerrymander maps so aggressively that public preferences cannot translate into electoral outcomes.

This is not sustainable. Something breaks. The only question is what.

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Right now we are in a patchwork. Soft secession is happening in pieces. Losing is happening in pieces. Nobody has arrested a federal officer yet, but the pressure is building. States are talking shit and filing injunctions, which is not oppositional federalism but it is not nothing either. It is the space before oppositional federalism, where everyone is waiting to see who goes first. These are the four paths that patchwork becomes when it stops being a patchwork.

The first is soft secession. The quiet quitting of governance. Nobody announces anything. A Supreme Court ruling comes down and state agencies just do not enforce it. No press conference, no declaration, just a policy memo that never gets written and funding that never gets allocated. Data stops flowing to federal databases. When federal agents show up, state employees shrug and say they cannot help. States start building their own versions of Medicaid and Social Security, knowing the federal programs are being gutted and their residents need something to catch them. The federal government issues orders and democratic states ignore them. Nobody signs a declaration. Nobody fires a shot. The union just stops functioning in practice while everyone pretends it still exists on paper. If this works, if democratic states coordinate their resistance and the federal government cannot force compliance, what emerges over time looks less like the United States and more like the European Union. Shared currency. Shared defense. Everything else negotiated between blocs that no longer pretend to be one country.

The second is oppositional federalism. Soft secession might not be enough when the federal government is already invading cities and disappearing people. This is the escalation: states stop quietly ignoring and start actively fighting back. State attorneys general bring criminal charges under state law against federal officials who violate it. Governors use state resources to obstruct federal enforcement rather than just failing to help. When federal agents come for residents, the state makes it as difficult as possible and dares the federal government to do something about it. This is not quiet quitting. This is standing in the doorway. It risks confrontation, but it also forces the federal government to either back down or escalate in ways that expose what they have become.

The third is a governor going on television and saying the words out loud. We are done. State flags fly alone. Borders go up. New currencies get printed. The map everyone pretended was hypothetical becomes the map everyone has to live with. This does not require permission from the federal government. It requires only enough states deciding at the same time that the thing we called a country no longer exists in any meaningful way. If it happens without war, the successor nations become neighbors who trade and negotiate like any other countries. If it happens with war, we become the Balkans.

The fourth is losing. Your vote never matters again. The courts stay captured. The GOP's private army keeps disappearing anyone they want, and it only escalates from here. The same minority rules permanently, and your children grow up in it, and their children after them, and nobody remembers what it was like when elections could change things.

These are the four paths in front of us. We are already walking toward one of them. The only question is whether we choose or let someone else choose for us
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Author: wzambon 🐝 HONORARY
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Number: of 75974 
Subject: Re: Four Paths
Date: 01/17/26 10:22 PM
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Christopher Aritage

https://cmarmitage.substack.com/p/the-four-paths-i...
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Author: marco100   😊 😞
Number: of 75974 
Subject: Re: Four Paths
Date: 01/18/26 12:10 AM
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Rev,

You have to stop reading this crazy stuff.

It's really not good for your mental health.

You're just self-reinforcing your paranoia by looking to other paranoids for guidance.
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Author: marco100   😊 😞
Number: of 75974 
Subject: Re: Four Paths
Date: 01/18/26 12:14 AM
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Thank you, but Mr. Armitage is bat shit crazy.
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Author: ges 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 5386 
Subject: Re: Four Paths
Date: 01/18/26 9:26 AM
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The fourth is losing. Your vote never matters again. The courts stay captured. The GOP's private army keeps disappearing anyone they want, and it only escalates from here. The same minority rules permanently, and your children grow up in it, and their children after them, and nobody remembers what it was like when elections could change things.

And MAGA says: "WINNING!"
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Author: EchotaBaaa   😊 😞
Number: of 5386 
Subject: Re: Four Paths
Date: 01/18/26 10:07 AM
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Or ---matybe listened just a little bit.

Maybe not totally shunned people's opinion on immigration, global trade, and culture.

Or even not do any of that.....

And tamp down the he/him shit ---and maybe "Kamala" who was in a 3% lead...would have won.


Here's the REAL path:

Sheeple is still extreme. Not willing to listen. Not willing to compromise even a little.

So she'll will be happy with 51% wins ...... which is on the way so congrats in advance.

The day after, kiss some Red State Senator's butt....and let him stymie you.

Sheeple has no interest in winning and actually governing.

So, this week's punishment: A visibly weaker Transatlantic Alliance.

Ok, I that's done. Productive morning :)

Boom. I'm winning.
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Author: Lambo 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 5386 
Subject: Re: Four Paths
Date: 01/18/26 12:28 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
Just how many people do you subscribe to? :)

And have a laugh on John Cleese:

https://x.com/mjfree/status/2012816145045151852
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