Post #4067 by musselmant on the Mechanical Investing board

Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing

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Analysts at Citi Research issued a warning, when they pointed out that the economist Ed Leamer, who passed away in February, famously published a paper in 2007 that said residential investment is the best leading indicator of an oncoming recession.

Citi pointed to fewer permits for single-family-home construction and an increase in the effective supply of homes on the market amid weak demand. Median home prices of existing homes were also falling on a monthly basis.

“Residential fixed investment is the most interest rate sensitive sector in the economy and is now signaling that mortgage rates around 7% are too high to sustain an expansion,” Citi said.

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