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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 1
Looking at these today, there seems to be some rather juicy returns, especially if one believes that UPST is still likely to climb:
Date Strike %ITM Cash Req'd Target %return Annualized Income/Contract Days to Go UPST FOMO
Jun-23 30.5 0.03% $ 28.40 $ 2.10 7.39% 1251.53% $ 210.00 10 32.6
Jul-23 30 1.67% $ 26.10 $ 3.90 14.94% 209.43% $ 390.00 45 33.9
Aug-23 30 1.67% $ 24.20 $ 5.80 23.97% 192.77% $ 580.00 73 35.8
The July 30 PUTS seem like a rather interesting proposition, buying UPST at 26.10 if the price drops below that, or getting 15% (absolute) on your money to hold it for 45 days. UPST has to climb above 34 for you to have done better with the stock. Note also that if UPST keeps climbing, you would be able to buy them back at a significant discount.
What do you guys think?
--G
No. of Recommendations: 2
Options are above my pay grade. :)
I know that there is potentially money to be made, or lost, with options, but I prefer to keep my stock market investing limited to buying and selling stocks, preferably rarely, to try to limit the damage I'm likely do to myself by falling prey to one or more of the many psychological traps there are out there.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Fair enough.
I did wind up pulling the trigger on the cash secured UPST put yesterday. That is, I sold short:
24 x 30 UPST JUL-23 PUT @ 4.85 per contract, receiving a total of $11624.31 and holding $60,360 in cash in case I have to buy UPST at $30. My potential return is 11624.31/60360 = 19% (not annualized). Note that UPST must rise above 34.8 before it was better to have just bought the stock.
Today (one day later), UPST has risen to 32.76, and I could buy back the options at $3.45 today for a very quick profit. I'm holding, but if it is another up day tomorrow, then I might close this position down (very) early.
So far, I'm 27% of the potential profit that I can get out of it.
--G
No. of Recommendations: 2
Hell of a run by UPST the last month and a half. Up to a close of $33.72 today, from a close of $12.10 back on May 2cnd.
We hit $34.76 today, just shy of the $34.8 you said was the point you'd have been better off buying the stock, not to belittle the success of your bet on 6/7/2023. Glad it's working out well for you. :)
If the bull run continues I may get back to break-even on my shares. Still down ~33%, so I need a 50% gain from here to break even, sad to say.
No. of Recommendations: 1
So I chickened out and sold way early. Profitable, but I certainly cut off the potential (and obviously this would have been better to buy the stock).
--G
No. of Recommendations: 1
Well, the advantage of chickening out and closing the position early is that I missed both the meteoric rise but also the subsequent plummet.
However, that volatility should make the put returns even more outrageous.
I'll take a look tomorrow (Monday 26/Jun).
'G
PS: This is nothing more than gambling; and I got lucky. There is no skill or experience involved here, and I will be the first to admit it.
