*                         1/22     1/29     2/5      2/12/24
S&P 500 Index             4839.81  4890.97  4958.61  5026.61
Trailing 12 month PE      25.27    25.74    25.99    26.34
Trail Earnings yield      3.96%    3.89%    3.85%    3.80%
Forward 12 month PE       22.08    22.31    22.62    22.83
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.53%    4.48%    4.42%    4.38%
90 day tbill yield        5.45     5.44     5.43     5.44
10 year tbond yield       4.15%    4.15%    4.03%    4.17%
Arezi Ratio               1.38     1.40     1.41     1.43
Fed Ratio                 0.92     0.93     0.91     0.95

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 48%
stocks, 52% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 28%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 77%.

Elan

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