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Most years I write up an article that provides perspective for the next year. I've written up an introduction which you can download via this link if you are interested. If Manlobbi or others would prefer that I not share things of this nature here, I won't. I stopped sharing on the MI board years ago after a conversation with them that basically meant that anything I share becomes their property. I'm assuming that is not the case now???

https://zeelotes.org/Intro_to_Perspectives.pdf

If Manlobbi or others would prefer that I not share things of this nature here, I won't. I stopped sharing on the MI board years ago after a conversation with them that basically meant that anything I share becomes their property. I'm assuming that is not the case now???

Everything that anyone writes at Shrewdom is *their own* property. That may differ from conventional publication protocols but to me it seems kinder and and I believe the way at least most Shrewds here like it.

Don't worry about what you post. You will also have free speech in the more traditional sense here, which contrast the modern variant which is 'Completely free, as long as power likes it'.

Indeed I am trying my best to encourage/fertilise a healthy culture. The chance of your post being removed is extremely small.

More than stating limits, I would state the opposite - everyone is encouraged to be brave, have initiative with research, and sharing their wonderful ideas.

If most at the Mechanical Investment board here want a certain etiquette to be altered in some way, then we can add it to the FAQ, but the culture here is already very good. It goes back 25 years and has a very large intellectual momentum along with important companionships.

This board serves as an important enduring central-square for the MI community, but in some of buildings just short walk out of the square, it is where much of the real work happens.

- Manlobbi

Hi Manlobbi, really appreciate your intelligent effort to replicate and possibly improve upon what was offered at The Motley Fool. But are you meaning to say that if Zeelotes or other merchandisers want to come here and try to promote and sell their wares, they're free to do that? If so, I can provide my own timing indicators at half the price that Zeelotes charges, only mine work better.

If so, I can provide my own timing indicators at half the price that Zeelotes charges, only mine work better.

:) Okay. So that was why I ended last message with the idea that if there is any etiquette that the board overwhelmingly agrees on, it can be added to the faq, which is shown at the bottom of every post.

Then if someone is abusing the etiquette really obviously, then only at that point a moderator could delete posts. But it would have to be pretty extreme to come to any post deleting. Its out of character with Shrewdom. People usually act respectfully of you assume they are respectful. In any case, the point is that ultimately the MI community as a whole can decide how upon the etiquette is set up.

Fortunately (hopefully) nothing should need to change from how the board was run the last 25 years.

- Manlobbi

BSD wrote:

"I can provide my own timing indicators at half the price...only mine work better."


Better? Can you provide some additional detail and data to backup that claim?

BSD, FWIW Zeelotes is not just some "merchandiser". He basically kept the MI board alive in the mid-late Aughts and beyond with extensive and detailed research into all the MI screens and market conditions monitoring approaches based on monitoring breadth and several more advanced strategies - for free.

Whatever content he wants to share here, paid or otherwise, is welcome.

As is yours.

FC

Alright. Nothing wrong with selling wares just so long as it is clear that's the actual objective. I'll post signals after the market closes on the 4 indexes I follow (S&P500, S&P 400, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ 100) as they arise in real-time for the next month and make them available for purchase thereafter. But this is merchandising plain and simple, as is the initial post, ?The Perspective for 2023?, which fails to provide a 2023 perspective whereas it includes a retrospective to incentivize a PURCHASE of ?The Perspective for 2023?. Merchandising and 'sharing? are different verbs, although the initial post in this thread seems to apply the terms interchangeably.

Alright. Nothing wrong with selling wares just so long as it is clear that's the actual objective. I'll post signals after the market closes on the 4 indexes I follow (S&P500, S&P 400, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ 100) as they arise in real-time for the next month and make them available for purchase thereafter

Ah, be nice..

You can sell what you want here, or anywhere. As for Zeelots, he deserves applause for his MI research contributions presented over many, many years.

Ideally, as Zeelots has done enormously, use the precious post time to present research, or MI related questions, rather than being aggressive towards *anyone* here in front of everyone. There is a solution that will solve everything for you, as follows:

If you think someone is selling too much, you can use the ignore feature also. It is more effective than how it worked previously. The author is not completely ignored, rather than just the subject blanked out.

Respect, and to shrewding!

- Manlobbi

BSD wrote:

"I'll post signals after the market closes on the 4 indexes I follow (S&P500, S&P 400, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ 100) as they arise in real-time for the next month and make them available for purchase thereafter."

So, help me understand: Are you offering access to the signals only; or information on how the system is built so purchasers can create the code needed to generate signals on their own?

Hi Zeelotes. How well did your Perspective for 2022 help somone navigate the markets? I know many years ago you posted that historically the market bottoms in the fourth quarter of the 2nd presidential year and then begins the strongest move of the presidential cycle. Does your 2023 Perspective help one determine if that bottom is in?

Ben asked: How well did your Perspective for 2022 help somone navigate the markets?

Did you obtain the introduction I wrote? I think it pretty clearly answers that question. Many Wall Street firms attempt to predict how the S&P 500 will do in a year. At the start of 2022 they all predicted a positive return on the year. Historical precedent was saying the opposite. It predicted a twenty to thirty percent drop in the major indexes. Which was right?

Does your 2023 Perspective help one determine if that bottom is in?

Yes, that is exactly the point of the research.

I don't remember where I read it but someone's research showed that 3 months into a recession is the typical low for the market for those of you expecting a recession.

This board is an extremely friendly place. Everyone is very helpful. I hope it stays as is.

zee: Many Wall Street firms attempt to predict how the S&P 500 will do in a year. At the start of 2022 they all predicted a positive return on the year. Historical precedent was saying the opposite. It predicted a twenty to thirty percent drop in the major indexes.

"Historical precedent"? At the turn of the year there was still an even directly before ongoing bull market. How can history tell when such ends?

What I could understand: If such an extreme long bull comes to an end and it's clear(!) we are finally in a bear market that from history maybe one can deduce how long and how deep that bear will be.

But when everything just directly(!) until a point X in time is upwards: How then can history tell that the end is reached right now, at that point X?

Said asked: How then can history tell that the end is reached right now, at that point X?

Pinpointing the exact day, of course, is not possible. But putting the probabilities in favor of a certain outcome, is very doable. In fact, it is exactly the total focus of my research. On December 1st, 2021 the Forbes List was released: www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2021/12/01/heres-what-wall-streets-biggest-banks-predict-for-stocks-in-2022-and-what-to-watch-for/

These were Wall Street's predictions, and at the bottom what my perspective article stated, which was released on 1/1/2022.

2022 Wall Street Predictions                                                           
S&P 500 Close on:                          12/31/2021  12/30/2022  2022 Low            
                                           $4,766.18   $3,839.50   $3,491.58  -26.74%  
                                From       To          From        To         From     To
BMO CAPITAL MARKETS             $5,300.00  $5,300.00   11.20%      11.20%     -27.56%  -27.56%
WELLS FARGO                     $5,100.00  $5,300.00   7.00%       11.20%     -24.72%  -27.56%
GOLDMAN SACHS                   $5,100.00  $5,100.00   7.00%       7.00%      -24.72%  -24.72%
JPMORGAN                        $5,050.00  $5,050.00   5.95%       5.95%      -23.97%  -23.97%
RBC CAPITAL MARKETS             $5,050.00  $5,050.00   5.95%       5.95%      -23.97%  -23.97%
UBS                             $4,850.00  $4,850.00   1.76%       1.76%      -20.84%  -20.84%
BANK OF AMERICA                 $4,600.00  $4,600.00   -3.49%      -3.49%     -16.53%  -16.53%
MORGAN STANLEY                  $4,400.00  $4,400.00   -7.68%      -7.68%     -12.74%  -12.74%
NED DAVIS RESEARCH - 12/7/2022  $4,300.00  $4,300.00   -9.78%      -9.78%     -10.71%  -10.71%
Average of All                                         1.99%       2.46%      -20.64%  -20.95%
ZEE Historical Precedent        $3,812.94  $3,336.33   -20.00%     -30.00%    0.70%    15.08%

In fact, the S&P 500's highest high was $4,818.62 on 1/4/2022. It's lowest low was on 10/13/2022 at $3,491.58. That is a drop of -27.54%. Now let me illustrate one example of how historical precedent helps. In the article I released on 1/1/2022 I shared research regarding inflation rates hitting six percent. Here is the table:

6.00%   Date        Date        S&P 500    S&P 500             S&P 500     S&P 500
Months  Begins      Ends        Max Price  Min Price  % Drop   Peak Date   Trough Date
4       4/30/1902   8/30/1902   $8.85      $6.26      -29.27%  9/30/1902   10/31/1903
6       10/31/1902  4/30/1903   $8.85      $6.26      -29.27%  9/30/1902   10/31/1903
1       2/28/1907   3/31/1907   $10.03     $7.45      -25.72%  9/30/1906   9/30/1907
6       5/31/1907   11/30/1907  $9.93      $6.25      -37.06%  11/30/1906  11/30/1907
14      4/30/1909   6/30/1910   $10.23     $8.64      -15.54%  10/31/1909  7/31/1910
12      4/30/1912   4/15/1913   $9.86      $8.12      -17.65%  9/30/1912   6/30/1913
2       4/15/1916   6/15/1916   $10.21     $6.80      -33.40%  11/30/1916  12/31/1917
55      7/15/1916   1/15/1921   $10.21     $6.27      -38.58%  11/30/1916  6/22/1921
24      9/15/1941   9/15/1943   $10.47     $7.47      -28.65%  7/28/1941   4/28/1942
28      8/15/1946   12/15/1948  $19.25     $13.55     -29.61%  5/29/1946   6/13/1949
12      2/15/1951   2/15/1952   $22.81     $20.96     -8.11%   5/3/1951    6/29/1951
3       1/15/1970   4/15/1970   $99.23     $68.61     -30.86%  11/10/1969  5/26/1970
3       5/15/1970   8/15/1970   $97.36     $68.61     -29.53%  11/17/1969  5/26/1970
34      9/15/1973   7/15/1976   $115.47    $60.96     -47.21%  3/15/1973   10/4/1974
66      4/15/1977   9/15/1982   $107.97    $86.45     -19.93%  1/3/1977    3/1/1978
4       10/15/1990  2/15/1991   $369.78    $294.51    -20.36%  7/16/1990   10/11/1990
14      11/10/2021  12/31/2022  $4,818.62  $3,491.58  -27.54%  1/4/2022    10/13/2022
17      Average                                       -27.55%              

So this average from 1900 to the end of 2021 was -27.55%. The maximum drop in the S&P 500 was -27.54%. It was off by 0.01%. Will this ever happen again? Doubtful. But it illustrates how historical precedent can guide investments. It is not a crystal ball, but history often rhymes.

Keep in mind this is just one example. I track a very large number of indicators from various fields, and it is their consensus that I pay most attention to, not one single indicator in isolation.

Now I understand - - - especially why I did not understand before: Because when you mentioned "history" I was focused narrowly on "price history", on predicting future prices by historical prices. Thanks to your explanation (historical effects of interest rate changes on prices) it all makes sense.

Thank you!

No, I'll only provide the signals although if anyone inquires about the mathematical basis for what I've done and what he or she proposes is correct, I'll confirm as much. Typically, my long/short signals last a couple of weeks although there are exceptions. I don't use moving averages or stochastics as both are subject to frustrating whipsaws.

Unlike Zeelotes or John J or whoever he is at the moment, I won't require an agreement not to post criticism here or elsewhere. It's fine with me if anyone criticizes my approach to the markets although I haven't found anything that works as well as the approach I embrace.

Can you post previous signals for the last couple of years?

Looks like "john's" post has been deleted and a post from dreamer questioning who "john" is. Sorry to see this is going to be so censored. BSD, would like to see some of your signals if your posts are not deleted. Are your signals based on breadth..such as new highs/new lows?

Looks like "john's" post has been deleted and a post from dreamer questioning who "john" is. Sorry to see this is going to be so censored. BSD, would like to see some of your signals if your posts are not deleted. Are your signals based on breadth..such as new highs/new lows?

My apologies Ben. I have limited time to report everything; I have been managing spam and other pressing data problems.

Don't worry, I'll explain:
1. I confirmed that John and Zeelotes were the same person, which Zeelots was 100% honest about even with a public post
2. Multiple accounts with the same user is one of the few things definitely not permitted.
3. I contacted Zeelotes and confirmed if I could merge his accounts. I went ahead and merged his posts into the one account - Zeelotes.
4. I deleted the latter part of the thread *exactly* to give Zeelotes a fresh start and prevent an OT overspill.

Firstly, next time I won't do 4. Secondly, don't expect me to be perfect, please.

Generally I expect to be rather distant regarding moderating once the board gains more momentum.

There have been much worse - fake accounts - with posts I have had to delete. If I reported everything it would be a mess. Sa there could be more moderation early on than what we'll typically expect.

- Manlobbi

"Firstly, next time I won't do 4. Secondly, don't expect me to be perfect, please."

Ok I'll certainly give you a break this time :) I do appreciate the ton of work necessary to open this board.

The signals are contingent on the underlying index. While this is a long/short strategy system, it isn't binary'positions are usually closed without a transition to the opposite posture in diffidence to choppy markets. The nomenclature is as follows: OL/CL (open long/close long), OS/CS (open short/close short).

For the S&P 500 as represented by /ES futures, here are the signals over the past 12 months:

OS 01/18/22
CS 01/31/22
OS 02/10/22
CS 02/22/22
OL 03/14/22
CL 04/04/22
OS 04/11/22
CS 05/23/22
OS 06/09/22
CS 06/21/22
OL 07/28/22
CL 08/15/22
OS 08/22/22
CS 09/06/22
OS 09/13/22
CS 09/26/22
OL 10/29/22
CL 10/31/22
OL 11/08/22
CL 12/05/22
OS 12/15/22--

I'll post the signals for other indexes if you're interested. Would encourage users to exploit futures rather than leveraged ETFs as leveraged ETFs utilize futures but you do not capture any of the tax benefits that are yours by utilizing the futures on your own. This is to say that using leveraged ETFs rather than futures on equity indexes is hampering your ultimate returns while providing the illusion of convenience, unless you're executing trades in a tax-sheltered American account.

Manlobbi, I notice that special characters tend to be misappropriated in a random manner even after I "Preview" posts prior to submission. In this latest post, for example, I used an em-dash which somehow gets mangled into an apostrophe. In a prior post, there were several special characters that got mangled into question marks despite my effort to preview prior to submission. This is a trivial quibble in light of everything else you're doing, but can it be remedied?

BSD, I would appreciate seeing your signals for NASDAQ 100. Thanks

The NASDAQ 100 (/NQ) and S&P 400 (/EMD) are more attractive indexes as the points per tick are substantially greater than the S&P 500 (/ES) and DJIA (/YM). Each 1 point move in /NQ has a value of $20. Each 1 point move in /EMD has a value of $100. Each 1 point move in /ES has a value of $12.50 and each 1 point move in /YM has a value of $5. The latter two indexes are less volatile, but the rewards still far outweigh the risks despite the volatility on the former 2 instruments.

Here are the signals for /NQ (futures version of NASDAQ 100) over the past 12 months:

OS 01/05/22
CS 01/31/22
OS 02/07/22
CS 02/22/22
OS 02/28/22
CS 03/14/22
OL 03/16/22
CL 04/04/22
OS 04/11/22
CS 05/25/22
OS 06/09/22
CS 06/21/22
OL 07/18/22
CL 08/15/22
OS 08/22/22
CS 09/06/22
OS 09/13/22
CS 10/17/22
OL 11/10/22
CL 12/05/22
OS 12/15/22 --

BSD

Thanks for posting the signals for 2022. When you say "OS 01/18/22", is that at a specific time of day? Open? Close? After close using futures?

Craig

Hi Craig,

At the closing bell of New York Stock Exchange regular market hours (usually 4 pm Eastern time), as equity index futures continue trading after the closing bell until 4:15 pm. After-hours trading resumes at 6:00 pm and continues until 6:00 am the following morning on weekdays and resumes on Sunday at 6:00 pm, but for the purposes of this strategy, those sessions are ignored as the volumes are substantially lighter despite the involvement of both Asian and European traders, the price action is often erratic, and the New York trading session tends to blot out whatever happens overnight.

How would your strategy work if the close of market determines signal but the purchase is made at the open of the next day's market?

Whey would you send signal?

BSD

Looking at the dates, OL 10/29/22 is a Saturday. Perhaps a typo?

Craig

4321rewq,
Sent promptly at market close (typically 4 pm, Eastern time). I haven't examined the results of trade execution at open the following day, although it is unlikely the results will be much different over time as any gaps up or down are probably awash if the strategy is followed consistently. One reason to be wary of executions at the open is price action often abruptly reverses when 'The Professionals' enter the market during the final 90 minutes of regular trading hours. The primary challenge with waiting until the following day, however, is that something will have changed overnight, and it will be tempting to 'wait until it's clearer,' which isn't going to happen. I'm never comfortable with new trade executions because the future is never clear(er). Any feelings of emotional confidence about the market's direction are usually misplaced and expensive, at least in my case...hence the math.

Craig,
Yes, the correct date is Friday 10/28/22.

Good signals for SPY (9 positive out of 10) and QQQ (10 out of 10 positive). Based on closing prices and no friction.

Craig

BSDetector,
Finally got to testing the results out with the indices and even SARK/TARK: Impressive results!!

How far back does your back test go?

When you planning on rolling out a subscription plan?

'When you planning on rolling out a subscription plan?'

Perhaps this is just a ruse to teach us a lesson not to follow strangers on the internet. After all, he is the BSDetector :)

Ben wrote:

"Perhaps this is just a ruse to teach us a lesson not to follow strangers on the internet. After all, he is the BSDetector :)"

I compared this to my own indicators and was able to identify a set of four which - when used in concert with each other, did a pretty good job of replicating his results.

So, there may be some merit to his model. However, without an understanding of how it's built, it's practically impossible to validate it...which is one key reason why I would never use a black-box system as part of my trading...

There's insufficient interest to make this a viable commercial enterprise, and LonghornBoy's wariness of reliance on a black box is sensible. But I'm not aware of any set of commonly available combination of indicators which replicate what this strategy attempts to measure. Perhaps LonghornBoy does not describe which indicators he's identified out of respect for an undisclosed approach, but he's under no obligation to keep what he's found secret.

I'll leave readers with two ideas which may be useful to further explore if they haven't already done so. It is terribly easy, at least for me, to assume that shorting is merely the opposite of adopting a long posture. It isn't. With this in mind, an area worth a careful perusal is the phenomenon which occurs as prices change at 'low' and 'high' extremes. For want of a better term, I call this phenomenon 'strain.' Those who look carefully at prices at extremes will notice that there's often useful information that may be missed in merely dwelling on standard deviation plots, and common, not especially useful measures such as 'volatility of volatility' in the volatility realm or far messier technical concepts such as support and resistance.

As an aside, it's peculiar how traders fixate on the latter concepts, using trappings such as Fibonacci retracements or whatever, even as price-action seemingly abruptly disregards any given previous support and resistance levels. It's strangely easy to repeatedly fall back on concepts or metrics which appear to function only elusively or that tend to sputter at inconvenient junctures. That's been my experience with indicators and combinations of indicators prepackaged for technical platforms, in any case.

"There's insufficient interest to make this a viable commercial enterprise, and LonghornBoy's wariness of reliance on a black box is sensible."

There is no way there could be sufficient interest at this point with so few folks here and with what you have shared so far. Some will never trust a black box, others might be like me and would allocate enough funds to such an approach and be willing to pay. I have traded a reversion to the mean type of trading for several years in a small account with some success but would rather do other things with my time and would be interested in your signals. If this board had been open and you had shared those signals for the last year, word would have spread and there would be interest.

I appreciate what you just shared, but I'm not sure what to make of it. What comes to mind is countless hours of candlestick patterns I tried to master years ago which lead nowhere where I was trying to find patterns at price extremes. Is your approach completely mechanical?

As I was looking back over the year to see what the returns were with the signals I only had a Bollinger band up and noted that there was short and longs depending on the outer bands but wasn't consistent.

This made me think there was overbought or oversold components. I did not have RSI or any other indicator up to correlate.

I will sit down and see what if I can see a pattern.

Like Tinsmith I don't mind putting some money into a blackbox system if a backtest was demonstrated and if live signals were shown on the board for a time period with a known cutoff day then I would definitely subscribe. (I dont have the time or skill to run most of the timing signals.)

But I understand that there are those who won't without a peak under the hood which limits the viability.

BSD

Before this thread ends, I do have a couple of questions. If the answers may give away too much, then not responding is fully understood.

As the signal occurs after the market close, it seems like the signal is dependent on multiple stock prices/factors that cannot be easily predicted close to the market close.

Also, as the signals are on different dates for SPY and QQQ, the signal for each ETF relies on different stocks or factors.

So, my question is, does the signal for SPY only use the constituents of SPY and the signal for QQQ only use the constituents for QQQ?

Thanks

Craig

To clarify, I'm culling information as the market closes rather than after the market closes. What happens immediately after the termination of regular trading hours is generally irrelevant, although money is still changing hands. As mentioned previously, buyers at the margin'larger institutional investors'most often step into the market in the final 90 minutes of regular trading hours.

The risk-on/risk-off sensibility towards equities in all the major American stock indexes still holds, but each index is apt to perform somewhat differently on the basis of the macroeconomic climate. For example, /YM (the Dow Jones Industrial Average e-mini) performed better than the other indexes with the most recent bull run extending into late autumn'perhaps because that index is represented predominately with consumer staples rather than consumer discretionary names, and institutional investors were preoccupied with maintaining a defensive posture. /YM's signal came sooner than the others and lasted longer with no need to exit and re-enter as was necessary with /ES (the S&P 500 e-mini). /NQ (the NASDAQ 100) showed a bullish signal much later, and performed relatively poorly, probably because investors are wary of interest-rate-laden businesses such as those in microprocessors. Was I aware a priori that /YM would perform superiorly? No! That's why it is best to pay attention to all 4 indexes and exploit all of them as independent entities, even in light of the risk-on/risk-off sensibility to equities by larger investors. Intuitively, my preference would be a simpler, larger position in the S&P 500, but that index consists of greater than 60% consumer discretionary names, and such a position would have diminished returns despite the general transition to "risk-on."

All of the indexes are assessed ipso facto, and the signals are strictly mechanical (i.e. 'me-proof'). I concur that it isn't reasonable to expect anyone to show commercial interest in this on the basis of what's been shown thus far. Let me think a bit more about what to provide potential users of the strategy (I haven't examined the use of leveraged ETFs in lieu of e-mini futures, for example), and I'll post again once I've done so. Of note, short positions were closed last Friday. No bullish signals yet, however.

A post on this thread by anchak was deleted at the request the author anchak.

- Manlobbi

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