No. of Recommendations: 21
The S&P 500 returned 25% in 2024 and is up another 4% this year, but Berkshire Hathaway refuses to join the party and continues to be a net seller of stocks.
CEO Buffett, who oversees Berkshire’s $300 billion equity portfolio, is unenthusiastic about equities with the S&P 500 hitting new highs.
It may take a sizable selloff to get Buffett excited about stocks and few see that coming in 2025. Since he turned 90 in 2020, Buffett has been cautious on stocks...If markets continue moving ahead in 2025, it should come as no surprise that the S&P beats Berkshire*, as Buffett has clearly been tightening down the hatches and keeping his powder dry (to mix metaphors). I don't think it has anything to do with his age - it has everything to do with the price of the market.
It is ironic that Barron's, which, as Jim says, has often been a great contrarian indicator, would say with a straight face that "It may take a sizable selloff to get Buffett excited a out stocks and
few see that coming in 2025." Since when could anyone see when a correction is coming? It always comes out of the blue, when everyone (and especially Barron's) is saying that the water is safe. (2 more mixed metaphors...sorry). The thing to do is to reduce your exposure when prices are too high, not because you know they exactly when they are going to collapse, which is impossible to know.
DTB
*After writing this, I checked whether it is even true that the S&P is ahead, and it is not, and nor is the S&P500TR, which includes dividends:
S&P ^SP500TR BRK-B
2025-12-31 5881.63 12911.82 453.28
now 6108.66 13445.97 481.44
increase 3.9% 4.1% 6.2%
So Buffett is ahead of the S&P by a nose, even while holding a boatload of cash (ok, I'm doing it on purpose)
