Jim wrote: To a large extent I was commenting on market tops, the end of a bull which is the start of the bear. They tend to be pretty rounded and gradual overall (though a bit squiggly/jagged short term). Bull market euphoria fades only slowly as many people are habituated to buying on every dip.

Bear market bottoms, as Zeelotes mentions, tend to be pointy: sharp drop, and (when it comes) sharp rebound.

A method I use to demonstrate this is based on using 20% Peak-Trough analysis based on close prices. This finds all major market peaks and all major market bottoms. I also remove 20% moves within a bear market and only show the highest high prior to the bear market and the absolute final bottom at the end of the bear market.

I find the # of market days that are within x% of each peak and each trough. The table that follows is based on 5% to 30%. The basic point should be obvious. Bear market bottoms tend to be more volatile and dramatic, whereas market peaks are slow in arriving and being sure it is truly a bear market in motion. Here are a few thoughts that flow from this study. NDX100 is from 1983 to present, whereas the S&P 500 is from 1928 to present.

1. The days within 5% of a bottom are a fraction of the days within 5% of a market peak. The latter is about five times larger.
2. The days within 30% on either side are three times larger for peaks than for bottoms.

                   NDX100                 S&P 500          
                   Total   Before  After  Total    Before  After
95%  105%  Top     40      21      21     71       36      36
           Bottom  6       3       3      13       6       8
90%  110%  Top     93      51      44     204      103     102
           Bottom  22      12      11     38       19      20
85%  115%  Top     173     102     72     326      168     159
           Bottom  43      21      23     74       31      44
80%  120%  Top     265     152     114    408      210     199
           Bottom  66      31      37     99       42      58
75%  125%  Top     337     196     142    471      238     234
           Bottom  84      37      48     114      51      64
70%  130%  Top     378     216     163    496      250     247
           Bottom  101     48      54     123      58      66

Here is an illustration of this with the details for the Nasdaq 100:

P-T         NDX100     90%       110%        400         100         Days Within          
Date        Price At   Position  Range       Before      After       Total        Before  After
6/16/1983   163.71     Top       $147.34     5/12/1982   7/20/1984   72           27      46
7/24/1984   98.96      Bottom    $108.86     4/15/1984   11/1/1984   67           52      15
10/6/1987   214.03     Top       $192.63     9/1/1986    11/9/1988   67           60      8
10/28/1987  126.25     Bottom    $138.88     7/20/1987   2/5/1988    10           3       8
7/16/1990   246.82     Top       $222.14     6/11/1989   8/20/1991   125          103     23
10/12/1990  162.55     Bottom    $178.81     7/4/1990    1/20/1991   26           9       18
7/21/1998   1,485.97   Top       $1,337.37   6/16/1997   8/25/1999   60           14      47
10/8/1998   1,063.27   Bottom    $1,169.60   6/30/1998   1/16/1999   3            3       1
3/24/2000   4,816.35   Top       $4,334.72   2/18/1999   4/28/2001   17           13      5
10/8/2002   795.25     Bottom    $874.78     6/30/2002   1/16/2003   16           14      3
10/31/2007  2,239.23   Top       $2,015.31   9/26/2006   12/4/2008   88           41      48
11/21/2008  1,018.86   Bottom    $1,120.75   8/13/2008   3/1/2009    5            3       3
10/1/2018   7,700.56   Top       $6,930.50   8/27/2017   11/5/2019   240          106     135
12/24/2018  5,895.12   Bottom    $6,484.63   9/15/2018   4/3/2019    12           5       8
2/19/2020   9,736.57   Top       $8,762.91   1/15/2019   3/25/2021   72           35      38
3/23/2020   6,771.91   Bottom    $7,449.10   12/14/2019  7/1/2020    6            6       1
11/22/2021  16,764.86  Top       $15,088.37  10/18/2020  12/27/2022  100          59      42
10/13/2022  10,440.64  Bottom    $11,484.70  7/5/2022    1/21/2023   49           11      39
                                                         Top         93           51      44
                                                         Bottom      22           12      11

Jim's conclusion on how best to trade a major bottom I'd agree with and many years ago I proved this out with a whole slew of posts on the subject.

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