Post New

Maybe I now understand this board's members approach towards Indicators a little better: "Don't rely on one indicator. Use them in conjunction".

Indicators:
- BCC: was and still is on all 3 fronts bullish
- CNN Fear&Greed: was and still is bullish
(https://en.macromicro.me/charts/50108/cnn-fear-and...)
All bullish.

So they are in line with these general rules:
- Presidential Cycle: still is in the last good year
- Best 9 months and "Sell in May...": the last good months are still to come
With those rules saying "The end might(?!) be near".

As I understand it BCC signals "Bearish" with a large delay (DBE especially), turning to fully bearish only when you are already in the middle of a bear market.

What additional indicators do you use?

Said - first, I encourage you to check out the Timing Methods on the FAQ wiki I set up:
http://mechinvesting.wikidot.com/
specifically - http://mechinvesting.wikidot.com/timing-methods

Some details on my other signals I follow, mostly posited years ago starting when the BearCatchers got developed:

https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=174463102
Putting it together - https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=47200751
Additional context: https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=733981565
You're right on DBE/99d being slow, but understand it was designed for defense - to reduce losses in long (and slower developing) bear markets, not increase CAGR. https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=679465223

And the benefit of these other signals beyond playing defense (allocation to equities) is limited at the macro level, as I mentioned in this post last fall:
With the exception of the extremes; the most pessimistic negative environments have recently been a great contrarian "buy" opportunity, and the most optimistic positive go environments have recently been a good equity exposure reduction / take some "off the table" opportunity.

So understand what I'm pointing you toward are some pretty noisy tuning knobs, or blunt instruments - just for reference & your choice-making - and all to be used in concert, not individually.

FC

FlyingCircus, my browser now is overloaded with a huge number of tabs that resulted from your links, with me already knee deep into reading all those threads. It will take some hours (days?) to process all the info your email points to - - - but it's very worth it. Extremely helpful.

Thank you very much!

Post New

Mechanical Investing FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.