Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
No. of Recommendations: 35
My God, crypto and options strategy on Berkshire. That seems to be all I am reading about up and down this doggone board. Why not listen to Warren Buffett and just stay put. Inactivity is an excellent strategy. Options are complicated for the vast majority of us on this board and requires enormous learning curve for those who are not comfortable with option strategies -- lots of decisions to make in getting in and getting out. I didn't want to speak up, but buy and hold is something to savor and to respect. Sorry, but I'm getting a bit annoyed with the direction of this board. Sure, I have the ignore feature, but I do highly respect the regular posters on here and will not resort to that feature. But c'mon guys, let's get back on topic.
https://youtu.be/thO39XHgfmo?si=42UTBy0deN3Hu3d5https://youtu.be/SMkpou-YBGw?si=_-K5Z164g7BBC8_k
No. of Recommendations: 1
“ My God, crypto and options strategy on Berkshire.“ Good morning, discussing option strategies is appropriate, discussing crypto on this board is ridiculous. Have a grand day all. ☮️
No. of Recommendations: 1
amen
No. of Recommendations: 37
My God, crypto and options strategy on Berkshire. That seems to be all I am reading about up and down this doggone board. Why not listen to Warren Buffett and just stay put. Inactivity is an excellent strategy. Options are complicated for the vast majority of us on this board and requires enormous learning curve for those who are not comfortable with option strategies -- lots of decisions to make in getting in and getting out. I didn't want to speak up, but buy and hold is something to savor and to respect. Sorry, but I'm getting a bit annoyed with the direction of this board. Sure, I have the ignore feature, but I do highly respect the regular posters on here and will not resort to that feature. But c'mon guys, let's get back on topic.
The paradox is that while Buy & Hold and inactivity is an excellent investment strategy, it's not a good strategy to keep a discussion board going. Posts keep a board alive! Inactivity may be a good investment strategy, but posting inactivity will kill this board!
Let's say everyone agreed to strictly limit discussion to buy & hold only. There won't be much left to talk about other than once every 3 months when the quarterly earnings release comes out. Are we all gonna regroup only once every 3 months to discuss? That's not gonna happen!
I come here every day because I can reliably expect a bunch of new posts. I also don't have time to look into crypto or options, but that's okay. Read it if you are still interested or ignore; either way it's not a big deal. When in fact there is something to talk about Berkshire, those discussions are definitely happening.
The bigger deal would be if the volume of posts started going down resulting in people showing up less frequently which in turn would lead to even fewer posts. The negative feedback loop will eventually lead to the board's demise.
Sure I can see the other extreme where the signal to noise ratio is extremely low and most posts are OT. But that is certainly not the case here. The volume of posts is barely at sustenance level.
The Berkshire board in particular has a good network effect going. Let's not kill it by discouraging posts. I view it as a place where Berkshire shareholders gather to discuss issues, but not necessarily limited to Berkshire.
No. of Recommendations: 12
Feel a bit unfairly maligned by the comparison here, as a BRK options holder (at times, not now) who is as anti-crypto as they come.
A few of us use deep-in-the-money, long-dated called options as a long-term hold strategy for BRK. Very similar to the BRK enterprise as a whole, which makes hay by investing a float created by its insurance business (nothing inactive about it, as the recent AAPL and BAC sales remind us). In short, not at all incompatible with a Buffet/Munger/BRK inspired view of investing.
I came across the idea on this board's predecessor, mostly via Jim, but also with good input from others (rayvt, I recall).
No other idea has come close to improving my investment returns.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Feel a bit unfairly maligned by the comparison here, as a BRK options holder (at times, not now) who is as anti-crypto as they come.
You don't want to be associated with the asset that 10X'd?
I suppose it would be even more galling (12X) to be associated with TSLA?
Unfairly Maligned
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Remember when the old board discussed topics like Taleb's Antifragile? It was an interesting topic and a new idea that could be applied to investing. BTC/TSLA and others offer a whole range of important investing concepts and potential products that one should be able to discuss but get shut down immediately:
- Metcalfe's Law
- Stock-to-flow
- Power Law
- Latest AI developments
- Innovation in financial markets
- Renewable energy v. oil industry
- Stationary battery business
- EVs v. ICE
- Electric trucks
- Auto insurance in the AI world
- Trends in online retailing
- Automation in manufacturing
- Does investing in non-income producing investments work? When and why?
- Game Theory
- Inflation strategies
- Advances in medicine
- Peptides
- Precision fermentation
- Advanced coin flipping
The list goes on and on.
No. of Recommendations: 7
"My God, crypto and options strategy on Berkshire. That seems to be all I am reading about up and down this doggone board."
While I agree wholeheartedly on "buy and hold" I don't agree that reading different investing strategies in Berkshire or the occasional off topic subject are bad for the board. For starters there's a lot of useful information to learn in those posts that help broaden our perspective and I can say that it has opened my eyes to something I've always worried about- when to sell. Most of us will almost always own Berkshire but there are times and reasons where selling is necessary. Reading those options messages are good because it gives different insight into valuations that we don't think about like we normally do from just reading the reports. I would also argue it just helps learning from more sophisticated investors. The key thing is telling myself NOT to try it because I'm simply not qualified to do it but it's still interesting to read about. Another thing is that buy and hold doesn't exactly lend itself to daily conversation! If we were only to talk about that this board would be awfully quiet for long stretches.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Baybrooks wrote:
The paradox is that while Buy & Hold and inactivity is an excellent investment strategy, it's not a good strategy to keep a discussion board going. Posts keep a board alive! Inactivity may be a good investment strategy, but posting inactivity will kill this board!
I love it! Similar paradox in the market. I remember looking at some price thrashing and thinking "why aren't these people LTBH?" But of course, it could be that 99% are LTBH, but on any given day the activity we see will still exist because the LTBH are doing nothing, the only people doing something are NOT LTBY no matter whether they are a majority or a pimple on the face of the market. So the paradox: the market will always LOOK like nobody is LTBH whether or not people are LTBH.
R:)
No. of Recommendations: 5
But of course, it could be that 99% are LTBH, but on any given day the activity we see will still exist because the LTBH are doing nothing, the only people doing something are NOT LTBY no matter whether they are a majority or a pimple on the face of the market. So the paradox: the market will always LOOK like nobody is LTBH whether or not people are LTBH.
Another interesting conundrum of the market:
Let's assume for the moment that the consensus opinion of all of those who look at the stock market is actually the correct valuation over time. Hey, it could happen.
But among that group there are people who consider equities NEVER a good deal, and they never own any and never trade them, so their opinion is never factored into the consensus price of the day. So it's quite possible that on average the consensus opinion of all observers is correct, but ALSO that on average the market is overvalued---the optimists are disproportionate buyers and investors, so the current price is a skewed to the high side. Similarly, as you note, the daily price is the consensus of the short term holders, and has almost zero input from the long term holders.
Sampling can be weird.
Imagine you ride the bus, lots of different routes at lots of different times, and you tried to estimate the average number of people on a bus. You will get a skewed result because you won't ever be on an empty bus. Not only that, but if your rides are distributed in a typical way you will get a high estimate because you will more often be part of a crowd seeing a high number: you're sampling the big numbers more often.
Jim
