Concensus estimate YE 2025 book…

I appreciate the post. I don't think Berkshire looks ahead like that. Here's an illustration I noticed:
When Berkshire was repurchasing shares with a multiplier of book value price limit (1.1 or 1.2), someone at the Annual meeting asked Buffett why he didn't repurchase shares the previous quarter, since the share price fell below that limit. He responded with confusion at the question. He said something like it didn't move below the repurchase limit, we watch it very closely. Buffett was right--it didn't move below last-published book value.

But if you calculated the repurchase level based on book value at Q1, you'd see that Berkshire traded below the repurchase level between January and the release. But using that future-released information would mean Berkshire keeps a live running total of book value to use for repurchases. I don't think Buffett even considers using something like that - that's why his confusion at the attendees question. It's not really in keeping with his description of us as partners.

You're right that he's repurchased large estate stock at higher prices than on the open market. I think he sees a difference between buying out a long term partner with a large quantity of stock available, and keeping the price too high for new partners to see a decent return.

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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