Post #1040 by Baltassar on the Mechanical Investing board

Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing

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Since the goal of GTT timing is to identify recessions, it's worth knowing about another indicator that works pretty well in real time (recessions are officially identifiable only retroactively). It is called the Sahm Rule, and it uses unemployment as its metric.

Here is a link for those who may be interested.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME

Here is a recent discussion by the inventor herself:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-11...

Baltassar

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