No. of Recommendations: 20
Something to ponder...
But not for too long : )
Once you've pondered for a little bit, you realize that what you're selling in any given bear market is a very small percentage of what you're going to be selling during your whole retirement.
(or you have a very small portfolio and therefore much bigger worries to ponder)
Over 10 or 20 or 40 years or whatever, the average valuation level you get on stuff you sell is going to be pretty average. Sometimes lucky, sometimes not, all comes out in the wash.
The "cost" of holding say 2-3 years of cash as a safety net is "not nothing".
I agree that cash cushions for bear markets are problematic. You need to be able to forecast prices 3 years in advance to figure out when to use it and when to sell more stuff to replenish it. I wouldn't want to try that when I'm old and [even more] doddering. Other than a cash pile for emergencies, I don't see a great need for a cash cushion to ride through bear markets, for the reasoning above: it's a passing problem and you'll sell at average prices over time anyway, so don't sweat it.
My key assertion is that a good portfolio with a low dividend yield is very much better to have than a worse portfolio selected for a high dividend yield. So start with the best picks you can manage. If you can put together a decent port with a high dividend yield, that's great, but beware the "reach" risk--on average you get much lower total returns as the payout gets high. The best way to build a dividend portfolio is usually to pick a bunch of plausibly good stocks which happen to have not-too-high yields.
Jim
