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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
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Author: lizgdal   😊 😞
Number: of 41628 
Subject: Re: The Philadelphia Inquirer Isn't Spineless
Date: 10/25/2024 10:34 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
Unemployment was high when the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act was signed into law.
Inflation was high when the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was signed into law.
Both are low today. And this was accomplished with high GDP growth, no recession, and real wage growth.

U.S. economic stats include inflation, unemployment, GDP growth, and wage growth. Which past economy would you prefer? Stats for 9 times in the last 8 years, sorted by my order of preference (inflation under 3%, unemployment under 5%, real GDP growth above 2%, higher wages):

Inflation  Unemployment  realGDPgrowth  realMedianWage         notes
2.2% 4.2 3.3% 371 Goldilocks economy
2.0% 4.7 2.1% 352 moderate GDP growth
1.7% 3.6 1.3% 367 low GDP growth

2.7% 6.1 1.8% 373 high unemployment
1.6% 6.4 1.8% 373 high unemployment
0.5% 13.2 -7.5% 393 high unemployment

3.4% 3.5 3.2% 366 high inflation
6.6% 3.6 2.3% 362 high inflation
7.0% 3.6 4.0% 362 high inflation


The U.S. economy has not only avoided recession. It’s growing faster. Oct. 24, 2024
High interest rates have less effect on growth
"The U.S. recession that was supposed to happen now appears to have become the economic expansion that just won’t end. The economy is on track to show unexpectedly brisk growth for the second quarter in a row. And it shows little sign of hitting the brakes. This wasn’t supposed to happen... GDP is the official scorecard of the economy. Until very recently, analysts believed the economy could only grow only about 1.8% a year under ideal conditions. Now that assumption is being questioned. Three years of high inflation has left millions of households stretched, especially lower-income families. Hiring has tapered off and the unemployment rate has topped 4% for the first time in more than three years."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-economy-avoi...

observation  Unemployment  Inflation  FedFunds  realMedianWage  realGDPgrowth                                notes
Jan-2017 4.7 2.0% 0.65 352 2.1% January 20, 2017: Trump inauguration.
Jan-2020 3.6 1.7% 1.55 367 1.3% pre-pandemic economy
May-2020 13.2 0.5% 0.05 393 -7.5% April 2020: COVID recession official end.
Jan-2021 6.4 1.6% 0.09 373 1.8% January 20, 2021: Biden inauguration.
Mar-2021 6.1 2.7% 0.07 373 1.8% March 11, 2021: American Rescue Plan Act signed into law.
Mar-2022 3.6 7.0% 0.2 362 4.0% March 16, 2022: Fed starts raising the Fed rate.
Aug-2022 3.6 6.6% 2.33 362 2.3% August 16, 2022: Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 signed into law.
Jul-2023 3.5 3.4% 5.12 366 3.2% July 26, 2023: The Fed stops raising the Fed rate.
Aug-2024 4.2 2.2% 5.33 371 3.3% today

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