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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/there-are-more-amer...

There are more unemployed Americans than open jobs for the first time since 2021, according to government data released Wednesday.

The latest JOLTS report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers fell below 1 to 0.99 in July, the lowest since April 2021, when the ratio was 0.96.

The latest JOLTS report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers fell below 1 to 0.99 in July, the lowest since April 2021, when the ratio was 0.96.

One data point is useless, without context.

This graph, from 2024, goes back to 2001. Less than 1 opening, per unemployed worker, was the norm, until the late teens.

https://www.nelsoncorp.com/chart-of-the-week/the-j...

Caught an interesting conversation on Yahoo's streaming finance channel, a few days ago. The guest proposed that "JCs" are not going to create as many jobs, going forward, as they have in the past, because the combination of retiring boomers, deportations, and closed borders tells them they will not be able to fill more jobs, so creating them is pointless. She was looking for monthly "jobs" numbers, going forward, in the 30,000 range, with some months in 2026-27 showing zero net job creation.

I saw a piece on the wire a few days ago that said some 1.2M have left the US workforce since the start of the year.

1.2M immigrants are gone from the US labor force under Trump, preliminary data shows

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/12m-immi...

Steve...back into lurk mode, before I get flamed again

Steve, what does JC stand for?

what does JC stand for?

Someone who claims they are a "Job Creator". Most are not. Musk is, as is Bezos. Finance is NOT a "job creator", so most of Wall Street is eliminated. Why? Because *who* provides the funding is irrelevant. The real JC creates jobs because the business creates the jobs--regardless of the source of financing--just as long at it gets funding.

Steve

Analysis of past numbers and ratios take it out of today's context. To do that is an oversimplification.

Analysis of past numbers and ratios take it out of today's context. To do that is an oversimplification.

I have an affinity for history. At my age, everything rhymes with something I have seen before. I do not call reversion to the mean a cause for hysteria, no matter how much the media may tell us it is. I propose that the oversupply of "jobs" since the plague was nothing but "irrational exuberance" on the part of the "JCs". They are now sobering up.

Steve

The context, American hegemony, is being stripped away.

Caught an interesting conversation on Yahoo's streaming finance channel, a few days ago.

ADP report hit the wire this morning.

Labor market growth slows dramatically in August with U.S. adding just 54,000 jobs, ADP says

Private payrolls increased by just 54,000 in August, well short of the 75,000 estimate from economists polled by Dow Jones and down from the revised gain of 106,000 jobs added in July.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/04/adp-jpb-data-augus...

If the woman speaking on Yahoo Finance, a few days ago, was right, we will see continued weakness in the "jobs" numbers, but the unemployment rate will not increase appreciably, because the unemployment will have been, effectively, exported.

Steve

The economic problems are dynamic and systemic. Currently, the problems are underestimated.

Currently, the problems are underestimated.

Or, maybe the traditional interpretation, like "low job creation means recession and rising unemployment" is obsolete, because the "job creation" number was unrealistically high, immigration policy is shrinking the labor pool, and "JCs" realize there is no-one to fill more "jobs", if they created them. If you check in to a high zoot hotel next year, your turn down service will not be done by an immigrant, but by a US citizen, forced to work/work more hours, to keep her Medicaid coverage, or you don't get a turn down at all.

Steve

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