No. of Recommendations: 3
All good points, some counter-counter arguments.
Canada Housing
* Bank Exposure seems to be fairly well managed; for example when interest rates were rising they were allowed to adjust the repayment terms for their customers.
Canada Economy
* Certainly a headwinds, could be a challenge; note that tariff threat is just a threat right now
Share Price
* Historically all the Bank stocks in Canada tend to trade in a range of each other. Royal Bank and TD being the typical leaders. In the past year RY is up 30% CIBC is up 50%, TD is flat, and dropped from $87 CAD to $73 CAD - a 15% drop. Looking even longer term
5YR
RY +65%
TD +10%
Addressing these points in reverse order, I see 5 year returns (2020-01-01 to 2025-01-01) are all over the map for the big 6 banks (we usually talk about the big 5, but National Bank is close enough to be included I think), I get this for their returns, ignoring dividends, with TD the worst of the 6:
TD: 6%
Bank of Nova Scotia: 26%
Band of Montreal: 39%
Royal Bank: 66%
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce: 66%
National Bank: 85%
A lot of that TD underperformance, but not all of it, is the result of the DoJ's $3b October money-laundering ruling, with the 15% drop in share price you referred to.
Yes, tariffs are a threat, not an actual reality, but I think the chance that they happen is substantial, at least for some industries.
As for bank exposure being well managed, I have a hard time seeing how the ability of banks to extend repayment terms for its clients would do anything to protect them from substantial default rates if housing were to enter a significant correction. Canadians' mortgage rates typically renew every 5 years of less, and many mortgage holders with 5-y fixed rates are only now seeing the effect of significantly higher rates that were still less than 2% 3 years ago but which are more like 5% now. And that is without a recession and without a drop in housing prices, which would be a triple whammy that banks have not faced in decades.
TD may stilll be the best of the 6 to invest in, at the current lower price, and I suspect they will indeed rapidly correct the laundering oversight deficiencies that the DoJ found. But the whole sector I think is exposed to some substantial threats.
