Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks
No. of Recommendations: 3
The WSJ notes that one party was conspicuously absent from the peace talks: Hezbollah.
It's been one of the saddest features of the Middle East that one of its most beautiful places has been partially occupied by a terrorist army funded by the Iranians and the Lebanese couldn't do anything about it.
...maybe until now:
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-leban...The possibility of direct talks between the leaders of Israel and Lebanon as announced by President Trump on Thursday would mark a historic step for two neighboring states that have been technically at war for 78 years.
But the talks would leave one of the main belligerents on the sidelines: Hezbollah, the U.S.-designated terrorist group that has been at war with Israel off and on since the 1980s.Maybe the Lebanese can work with the Israelis to clean those losers out now that their paymasters in Tehran have more pressing needs for what little cash they have left.
No. of Recommendations: 7
Maybe the Lebanese can work with the Israelis to clean those losers out now that their paymasters in Tehran have more pressing needs for what little cash they have left.
First problem is Hezbollah is larger than the Lebanese army.
Second problem, how reliable are the grunts in the Lebanese army? Would they attack Hezbollah, or go over to their side?
Meanwhile.
Israel demands a "security zone" in southern Lebanon.
At the meeting Rubio hosted, the Lebanese ambassador said words to the effect "we are a sovereign country. You can't simply take a twenty mile deep slice".
Meanwhile Israeli zealots are chomping at the bit to fill that "security zone" with settlements.
Complicated, isn't it?
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 5
Complicated, isn't it?
We don’t do “nuance”.
No. of Recommendations: 2
First problem is Hezbollah is larger than the Lebanese army.
Second problem, how reliable are the grunts in the Lebanese army? Would they attack Hezbollah, or go over to their side?
On the first point, the Israelis are doing what they do, which is to say they're working their way down the list of commanders and important people. And getting rid of them.
On the second, the Lebanese army IIRC is full of Sunni Muslims, Christians and Druze. Anyone who wants to fight for Hezbollah already is.
Israel demands a "security zone" in southern Lebanon.
At the meeting Rubio hosted, the Lebanese ambassador said words to the effect "we are a sovereign country. You can't simply take a twenty mile deep slice".
Meanwhile Israeli zealots are chomping at the bit to fill that "security zone" with settlements.
Complicated, isn't it?
Of course. But if you're Lebanon, and the Israelis do you the massive favor of removing the terrorist army that's been occupying 20-30% of your country for 40+ years, you're getting a massive gift. Especially once the US aid rolls in as a sweetener to rebuild Beirut back into the Paris of the Middle East.
No. of Recommendations: 3
We don’t do “nuance”.
It doesn't. As in, at all.
That's what happens when you go all ORANGEMANBADBADBAD and stop being an objective thinker.
Not everyone here does it but enough people do such that the signal/noise ratio is very close to zero.
No. of Recommendations: 5
On the second, the Lebanese army IIRC is full of Sunni Muslims, Christians and Druze. Anyone who wants to fight for Hezbollah already is.If you are a Lebanese, and you are seeing Israel uprooting over 1M of your countrymen, destroying their homes, and seizing their land, permanently, you may reexamine your position.
But if you're Lebanon, and the Israelis do you the massive favor of removing the terrorist army that's been occupying 20-30% of your country for 40+ years, One of the major provisions of the 2024 cease fire was that the Lebanese government disarm Hezbollah. The Lebanese government lacks the means, for reasons already discussed.
What would it take, for Israel to do the job?
The Israeli military is unable to disarm Hezbollah, as doing so would require occupying all of Lebanon, IDF officials said on Friday, adding that only the Lebanese government could disarm the group.https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-securit...So, impasse.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 4
If you are a Lebanese, and you are seeing Israel uprooting over 1M of your countrymen, destroying their homes, and seizing their land, permanently, you may reexamine your position.
Are they? Who are the folks in Southern Lebanon? Are they hard working entrepreneurs or are they ardent supporters of Hezbollah, the entity that has reduced your country from an absolute gem to a craphole over the course of 40 years?
And if the Israelis are promising to atomize Hez once and for all...what are you willing to trade for it?
That's the question.
No. of Recommendations: 11
Important reminder:
"I was Donald Trumps closest friend for 10 years.
He’s a salesman. He knows real estate really well, anything else, he knows nothing. No history, no strategy, he can’t read a spreadsheet, which is funny." ~Jeffrey Epstein
https://www.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey-epstein-describ...
No. of Recommendations: 8
Who are the folks in Southern Lebanon? As you know, residents of southern Lebanon are primarily Shia.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lebanon_re...Everything I see says Hezbollah formed as a response to the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
Why did Israel invade Lebanon? To eradicate the PLO, which was majority Sunni. The Shia population had the misfortune to be in the way, so the IDF rolled over them.
So, does Hezbollah perform the job the Lebanese government can't do, put up a fight against periodic Israeli invasions?
Or, do the people living in that area have no means to resist anyone who wants to make their town a war zone, be it Hezbollah, or the IDF?
It's complicated.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 3
Everything I see says Hezbollah formed as a response to the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
Why did Israel invade Lebanon? To eradicate the PLO, which was majority Sunni. The Shia population had the misfortune to be in the way, so the IDF rolled over them.
So, does Hezbollah perform the job the Lebanese government can't do, put up a fight against periodic Israeli invasions?
Or, do the people living in that area have no means to resist anyone who wants to make their town a war zone, be it Hezbollah, or the IDF?
It's complicated.
I don't think anyone is saying it isn't complicated. However, big complex problems are best solved by breaking them down into smaller steps.
Getting rid of Hezbollah is one of those steps.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Getting rid of Hezbollah is one of those steps.
I think we can agree that shooting at Israel is counter productive, but so is Israel shooting at Lebanese, and Israel has been killing Lebanese since before Hezbollah was a thing. We old phartz remember when the IDF ran all the way into Beirut, then looked the other way, while a Christian militia went into two Pal neighborhoods, and killed everyone in sight.
Thing is, the only interested group that has a vote in the Israeli government is the zealots who want to ethnically cleanse every area they see, then fill it with Israeli settlements. That won't sit well with Lebanese, Christian, Shia, or Sunni. But the zealots can bring down "Bibi's" regime, by pulling their fringe party out of his coalition.
Remember the story of the Gordian knot?
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 4
and stop being an objective thinker.
The surrender monkey showed us he's not an objective thinker.
