Post #76509 by Steve203 on the US Policy board

Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy

Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (2)

Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!

No. of Recommendations: 5

Ten Things That Are Clear

No one can accurately assess what Trump is likely to do, but he does want an off-ramp.

Iran wants to inflict as much damage on Trump as it can.

No one knows how much pressure either side can deal with, but Iran’s pain tolerance is very high.

Iran does not have elections to worry about, Trump does.

Rising global costs are permanent.

Upward pressure on inflation continues.

Infrastructure damage will take years to repair.

US consumers and businesses are extremely unhappy about this war.

US allies are also extremely unhappy and they are more willing to directly challenge Trump.

The Mideast balance of power is shifting away from the US, not in a surge, but in drips. Mideast allies now understand the US military shield is not invincible.

Mideast allies have dollar funding issues. Their pain is growing along with Iran’s.

One result of those ten things is Republicans rate to get smashed in the Midterm elections.
That reality is likely to make Trump even more demanding and erratic

https://mishtalk.com/ask/day-56-an-uneasy-stalemat...

Print the post

Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!

No. of Recommendations: 7

No one can accurately assess what Trump is likely to do, but he does want an off-ramp.

Are we sure about that? Did Trump the Conqueror bargain in good faith with Iran last summer, just before bombing them? Did Trump the Magnificent bargain in good faith with Iran last February, just before bombing them? Does anyone really think he is bargaining in good faith now?

Not everyone wants the oil to flow freely.

$30m an hour: big oil reaping huge war windfall from consumers, analysis finds

The conflict pushed the price of oil to an average of $100 (Ł74) a barrel in March, leading to estimated windfall war profits for the month of $23bn for the companies. Oil and gas supplies will take months to return to pre-war levels and the companies will make $234bn by the end of the year if the oil price continues to average $100. The analysis uses data from a leading intelligence provider, Rystad Energy, analysed by Global Witness.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/1...

The price of oil had been in a downtrend, for about 4 years. That problem has been "fixed".

Steve

Print the post

Post New

Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (2)

Prev | Next

Announcements

US Policy FAQ

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

A community forum supporting civilized, and highly helpful, self-educating investors that come together for Shrewdness and merry spirits. These message boards closely follow the look and feel of the old message boards at boards.fool.com prior to the boards redirected to discussion.fool.com. Shrewd'm is not affiliated with the comprehensive and excellent investment website, The Motley Fool (TMF), in any way. The Shrewd commmunity here has owed, and continues to owe, gratitude to The Motley Fool for nurturing a culture of jovial irreverence towards Wall St, and that tradition will continue here.