Today is why winning feels like. Don’t lose sight of that.

As I mentioned upthread, I think this is a good step. The hostage release and ceasefire are things to be celebrated.

However, those pointing out that those are really the only things that were know have been accomplished are not wrong. A great deal depends on whether Hamas chooses to disarm and dissolve, or whether they insist on maintaining their weapons and having a role in Gaza's future. I am open to the possibility of that happening, given that Trump was able to strong-arm the other ME countries into publicly signing off on a deal that throws Hamas under the bus. But given what lies in store for them if they do agree to it - basically a short life of poverty and irrelevance until they are killed by the Mossad or other Palestinians out for vengeance - it's hard to be exceptionally optimistic.

We can simultaneously recognize that this is a win and that the win is fragile and depends on whether Hamas chooses a very different kind of martyrdom. What are the odds on them doing the right thing, after all this time of doing the wrong one?

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