No. of Recommendations: 23
Really nice page, showing the futures implied forward interest rate curves, and the history of those curves.
https://www.chathamfinancial.com/insights/what-is-...If you think of the curves as being forecasts, this graph demonstrates that they are frequently terrible. But as the article notes, that isn't what they really are: they are the breakeven point for those wanting to make a bet on future rates. Sometimes that's different from a consensus forecast, since market players sometimes have reasons to place wagers other than expressing an opinion--notably for hedging. Of course if your informed opinion differs from the line, and you're right, there is money to be make.
Anyway, since inflation and interest rates have been much more interesting than usual in the last couple of years, I thought some folks might like to see what the current "forecast" is and how relatively useless that has been in the past : ) Anybody with a non-zero amount of cash (+cash or -debt) in effect has to make some sort of choice on how that will be held in terms of term, currency, and counterparty.
The current (Sept 30) breakeven line implies a pretty prompt drop in short term rates to 3% within about a year.
Jim
