Post #40458 by g0177325 on the US Policy board

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The probability of impact with Earth has dropped significantly since this story, though it may still hit the Moon.
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_YR4#2032_potent...

Calculations using an observation arc of 66 days, as of 1 March 2025, found that 2024 YR4 has a 1-in-120,000 (0.00082%) chance of impacting Earth on 22 December 2032.[7] The nominal (best-fit) closest approach to Earth on 22 December 2032 is at 08:29 UTC (with an uncertainty of about 4 hours in the closest-approach time), at a distance of 273,000 km (170,000 mi), with a 3-sigma uncertainty of 191,000 km (119,000 mi). The nominal closest approach to the Moon occurs at 15:04 UTC, with a nominal distance of about 17,000 km (11,000 mi).[3]

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