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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoins-slumpin...

Bitcoin's movements seem to follow equities from the standpoint of direction, but I suspect margin is increasing the amplitude of the swings.

The top executive at bitcoin’s biggest corporate owner has laid out the parameters that would force his company to sell some of its $56 billion worth of the cryptocurrency.

Phong Le, CEO of Strategy at MSTR said bitcoin would be sold if if the company’s multiple to net asset value (mNAV) — a valuation metric that divides the company’s market capitalization by the market value of the Bitcoin it holds — fell below 1.

“So now, as we’re looking at bitcoin winter, as we see our mNAV compressing, my hope is our mNAV doesn’t go below one. But if we did and we didn’t have other access to capital, we would sell bitcoin,” he told a podcast interview that published Friday. “That would be a last resort.”

The mNAV for the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, whose share are down 38% this year, currently stands at 1.19, but reached as high as 2.5 times in 2024 and around 1.7 times in June. An mNAV above 1 means Strategy trades at a premium to its bitcoin holdings.

Le said he remains optimistic on bitcoin going forward, saying that as long as bitcoin can double the performance of the S&P 500 , gaining say 30% a year on the index’s 14%, then “we’re going to win.”

“I think for the foreseeable future, we’re still talking 50% to 40% annualized returns over a four- to five-year period,” he said. “It’s an amazing technology, it has an amazing store value asset, it’s non-sovereign, it has a limited supply.”

Jeff

MSTR stock price has fallen by more than 50% in the last 2 months, with the price down about 10% today. Bitcoin price is down about 6% today.

MSTR holdings:
bitcoin 640,031 * $85,060 = $54B
market cap 287,354k * $161 = $46B
debt $8B
Preferred Stock $6B

Public U.S. companies hold over one million Bitcoin, which represents more than 4.7% of the total Bitcoin supply as of September 2025. Strategy Inc (MSTR) Shares outstanding increased 46% in the last year, with the proceeds mostly spent on bitcoin (Intangibles increased from $6B to $64B). Bitcoin price increased 76% between June 2024 and June 2025.

=== links ===

Tumbling crypto stocks threaten end to Wall Street’s 5-day winning streak, December 1, 2025
"Strategy, the company that used to be known as MicroStrategy and now raises money just to buy bitcoin, lost 10.3%. It said that it raised a fund of $1.44 billion in U.S. dollars, not in bitcoin, by selling stock to help pay for its dividends on preferred shares and interest on its debt."
https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-retail-c...

Public Companies that Own Bitcoin
https://bitbo.io/treasuries/#public

Crypto hoarding company shares under pressure as risk appetite wanes, November 28, 2025
"At least 15 bitcoin treasury companies were trading below the net asset value of their tokens as of Friday, according to data from crypto publication The Block."
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/crypto-ho...

The crypto publication "The Block" Market Cap data appears to be stale, maybe using a $330 stock price last seen October 8th.
crypto publication The Block Bitcoin Treasury Tracker
MSTR holds $55B bitcoin and has a $95B Market Cap, resulting in a mNAV of 1.7.
https://www.theblock.co/treasuries/bitcoin-treasur...

While the tulip bubble was not too big to fail, I wonder, especially with the current US administration is pushing towards legitimizing crypto as legal tender. Is that tying the future fiscal stability of the US to a "currency" outside of their control?

Jeff

Jeff,

I think BTC in the government's possession would become just another asset. It would be worthless in the long term, unlike gold. It is corrupt to the bone.

... double the performance of the S&P 500 , gaining say 30% a year on the index’s 14%

Honestly, if the S&P gains 14% annually for four or five years, I'm fine with that -- assuming it isn't completely devoured by inflation and $US depreciation.

Baltassar

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