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- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks T / Tesla (TSLA)
No. of Recommendations: 1
Autonomy is looking realer and realer.
Robotaxi starting June 2025.
Optimus bot will be able to thread a needle and play piano.
Thousands built by year end.
You gotta be blind not to see where this stock is going.
Currently $400
That is all.
No. of Recommendations: 6
Autonomy is looking realer and realer.
Robotaxi starting June 2025.
Optimus bot will be able to thread a needle and play piano.
It sounds exciting but...
Several manufacturers' version of driver assist are now rated as high or higher than Tesla's. Tesla's lead in this area seems to have eroded considerably.
As I understand it, the Robotaxi will feature remote human monitoring. That is still impressive, but Waymo was offering this four years ago.
I've watched a number of humanoid robot videos recently. Optimus does not appear to be in the top tier of offerings at the moment as best I can tell from the videos. Other manufacturers have AI capabilities that Optimus appears to lack and there are definitely more agile/dexterous robots out there. I'm not saying Youtube is a good way to evaluate robots, but if Tesla had something more impressive I'm sure they'd be showing it.
You gotta be blind not to see where this stock is going.
Let's look at some numbers:
Net Revenue
2022: $81.46 billion
2023: $96.77 billion
2024: $97.69 billion
Net Income
2022: $12.56 billion
2023: $15.0 billion
2024: $7.09 billion
Profit Margin
2022: 15.4%
2023: 15.5%
2024: 7.3%
Capex
2022: $7.2 billion
2023: $8.9 billion
2024: $11.3 billion
Revenues are flat, profits are down, and margins are down. Capex is up a lot, which can be bullish, in my view. But the devil is the depreciation will hit net income. Hard to justify the growth premium with those numbers.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Revenues are flat, profits are down, and margins are down. Capex is up a lot, which can be bullish, in my view. But the devil is the depreciation will hit net income. Hard to justify the growth premium with those numbers.
None of that really matters. Maybe 10% of the current value is in the car business.
We got Elon Musk. We got his merry band of super-geniuses too. Why do people continue to underestimate him? Look at what he's done to his "enemies".
Now throw in Tesla's expertise in all the different skills necessary to win in autonomy and bots and they look uncatchable to me. Data centers, data, inference computers, software, manufacturing, distribution, batteries, communications, marketing, material science, engineering and worldwide service.
It's like explaining why Tiger could win so often in his prime: he was just better than everyone else in just about every way.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Grok-3:
https://youtu.be/AUAJ82H12qs?si=eV2EmgaCNrcMb5bfTeslas and Optimus will have this. Swept the board in LLMs. It will have voice capability.
Strange to me that people accept that WEB was BH's major asset all those years and then the same people act like EM is a liability.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Grok 3 seems to be performing well among other top models, the Model Y refresh and Shanghai gigafactory might be boosts, too. What's your target valuation for TSLA?
No. of Recommendations: 1
Grok 3 seems to be performing well among other top models, the Model Y refresh and Shanghai gigafactory might be boosts, too. What's your target valuation for TSLA?
Elon went from a standing start two years ago to leading in AI.
I look ten years out. Seriously. My over/under is 10T in 2035. Maybe 25%/year return. (A lot of that could be front loaded when people realize how big embodied AI is going to be.) I don't mess with short term predictions other than to trim/buy shares after big moves. I've lost money making shorter term bets on product timelines that were missed. FSDU (unsupervised) is not as close as people think from my experiences.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Strange to me that people accept that WEB was BH's major asset all those years and then the same people act like EM is a liability.
Was that directed at me? I only commented on the business case, not Musk (or WEB for that matter).
No. of Recommendations: 1
Here is some more news related to the business case:
In its communications with California officials, Tesla discussed driver’s license information and drug-testing coordination, suggesting the company intends to use human drivers, at least initially. Tesla is applying for the same type of permit used by Waymo, Alphabet Inc.’s robotaxi business. While Tesla has approval to test autonomous vehicles with a safety driver in California, it doesn’t have, nor has applied for, a driverless testing or deployment permit from the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles, according to a spokesperson.https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-sets-sights-w...So for California at least, the Robotaxi will have human safety drivers. Waymo uses geofencing, which Tesla says it doesn't want to do, but Waymo also already has driverless taxi pick up. The key here will be if Tesla can leapfrog past the geofencing stage.
No. of Recommendations: 1
I am not piling on the OP, hindsight is always 20/20.
But WOW, has this ever aged badly.
No. of Recommendations: 0
am rather curious whether the short thesis of an ~80% drop from median retail shareholder cost is really going to break the musk fanboy tech fantasy. will they ride it all the way down until a possible musk take-under?
shift to spaceX, starlink?
