No. of Recommendations: 18
Forget the tariffs, look at the geopolitics.
...
Sounds dire.
I'll contrast your statement with Buffet's (an American) in 2021:
...Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America."
Mr Buffett has been correct about this in the past. But the past is a different place.
To assume that something will keep happening because it happened in the past, "engineer's induction", is not always good enough. He's continuing to make an all-in wager on that, as he always has, because he trusts the rules of thumb that have worked throughout his life and likely always will. Sometimes that works out, sometimes not.
One might argue that his reasons are not merely because of past observations, but because of fundamental advantages. Fair enough, that makes sense. But the most productive places are those with minimally distorting industrial policy, strong and predictable rule of law, open capital accounts, well educated workers and demos, and high trade intensity. If there were league tables for that list, the US would be way lower than it was in the past.
I'd say think it's time to remove the word "never", at least. I've made [redacted] betting against America this week, enough that I am up nicely month-to-date. I imagine I'll do fine elsewhere.
Jim
