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from WSJ:

In the 2000-2002 bear market very small stocks went up 1% while big stocks fell 37%. (The 2008 crash didn't shows that big a difference).


Right now big stocks are valued at 4 times the book value of small caps.

Nvdia is worth more than the entire Russell2000 right now.

Their point: can this continue? Shouldn't nimble, creative small caps start to improve more?

No idea! Last 10 year run of big caps was driven by their greater growth in earnings.

This month IWM is up 3% while SPY is up 1.5%. But the last 6 months have been awful for small caps. Maybe we're already at a turning point.

Elan

For what it may be worth, a look at some intermediate- and short-term market breadth conditions for US small caps:

Intermediate-Term		SmallCaps	Since
INT-TERM SCORE	-1	
BearCatcher	                Naz NH/NL	 -	
BearCatcher	                SMA Slope	Neutral	5/30/25
BearCatcher	                99D	        Bear	7/10/25
	
Momentum, Int	                 26W / 52W	Bull	6/26/25
Momentum, Int	               # 26 week highs	Neutral	7/10/25
Momentum, Int	                 DMI	        Neutral	5/23/24
Momentum, Int-Term	       10/50 Crossover	Neutral	5/12/25
Momentum, Int	                 PPO Weekly	Bull	6/27
Correction Mode	>7% off last peak	        Bear	7/10/25
Timing, Seasonal	         MACD on RUT	Bear	5/23/25
			
	
Danger Indicator			        Bear    7/18
Momentum, ST	               PPO Daily	Bear	7/18/25
Breadth, short term	       SP600 PAMA20	Neutral	7/18/25
Top warning Recent Simple Top (10d)		Neutral
	# 26week Highs last 10d	                Neutral	
Breadth, short term	SPSC Above 20DMA gtsml	Neutral	

Although small caps have somewhat recovered since the April Demolition Day, the index hasn't recovered its earlier 2025 high (as large cap / lc tech have) and hasn't rebounded as strongly as those.

Compared to large cap tech and general large caps which are both at +8 (solid bullish).

On a GTAA ranking basis, Small Caps (IJR) remain #12 out of 14 classes I track. It crossed its 33W moving average only at July 3rd, by a long shot the last equity asset class to get back above it, and partially because that intermediate term moving average continues to decline.

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