What is a good source for the S&P 500 PE ratio analysis?

The current P/E of the market isn't actually a usefully good predictor of anything. During recessions, for example, you tend to see high multiples because earnings are temporarily depressed. But if you're thinking it's going to be a sensibly low multiple indicative of a good time to buy, you'll be disappointed.

The best yardstick is cyclically adjusted earnings, expressed as an earnings yield rather than as a P/E ratio. The reason for the distinction is that you can do math with earnings yields, like averaging them over time, but you can't do that with P/E ratios. There aren't many good sources for this, but Smithers & Co keeps a page here https://smithers.co.uk/q_faqs/us-cape-and-q-chart/
They keep trying to do math on P/E ratios, thinking it's a problem of geometric means, but perhaps one day they'll learn.

If you really don't want cyclical adjustment---
Forwards earnings estimates are always too optimistic, but they do admittedly have the advantage that they don't include any one-off effects, since nobody includes one-off things that haven't happened yet in their estimates. The Factset weekly Earnings Insight report is an excellent source. Google "Factset S&P 500 earnings" and the top result is usually their PDF.

Jim

PS
From the "teach a man to fish" department--
In case anyone is interested, here is a brief history of the smoothing that I use. It's like the E10 used in CAPE with two slight changes: (a) somewhat smoother and (b) scaled so that on average it's close to what earnings would be on any given date if that date were neither unusually good nor unusually bad. This is entirely backwards looking: the figure for each date uses only data available up to that date.

Have a look at the history. I believe the last column below gives you a reasonably good idea of current broad market valuation levels. You can compare it to the average figure in (say) the last 5 years, up to average figure in the last 35 years, with the table below. You can say with some modest confidence that prices are currently 48% higher than they were at the lowest quarter of the credit crunch at end March 2009 (the cheapest quarter in t his series), and the market was 31% more expensive than this at the end of March 2000 at the end of the tech bubble (the most expensive line in this series). The market was cheaper than this 86% of the time in the last 35 years.

The S&P figures are all off by a hair because I do this weekly and just resampled it to be quarterly to make a reasonably sized post. The "Real price" and "Trend earnings" columns are with today's CPI of 319.80. Knowing that, you could scale the numbers appropriately for any future date. The other columns, notably the trend earnings yield, won't need revision.

The health warning: the trend earnings are perhaps an overestimate, so there is a case to be made that the market is currently more expensive than these figures imply. Net profit margins have been (compared to history) extremely high for some years now, long enough that the trend earnings line itself has bent upwards. Mathematically, this can not continue forever. The recent rate of earnings growth will definitely at least slow back to the rate of sales growth at some point (if margins stay very high but stop rising), or perhaps lower for a while if net margins fall back somewhat in the direction of old normal levels.

The last date is this week just ended, so it isn't part of the quarterly spacing.

   Quarter        S&P       Real       Real      Trend
    Ending      Index      Index    Trend E    E Yield
1989-12-31     353.40     895.20      56.00     6.255%
1990-03-31     339.94     845.73      56.07     6.629%
1990-06-30     358.02     881.81      56.04     6.355%
1990-09-30     306.05     738.11      55.94     7.579%
1990-12-31     328.72     784.95      55.83     7.112%
1991-03-31     375.22     889.07      55.70     6.264%
1991-06-30     371.16     873.28      55.60     6.367%
1991-09-30     385.90     900.34      55.48     6.162%
1991-12-31     406.46     942.60      55.30     5.866%
1992-03-31     403.50     927.37      55.05     5.936%
1992-06-30     403.45     921.30      54.77     5.945%
1992-09-30     414.35     941.10      54.54     5.795%
1992-12-31     435.71     981.71      54.34     5.535%
1993-03-31     447.78    1001.16      54.22     5.416%
1993-06-30     447.60     993.01      54.15     5.453%
1993-09-30     457.63    1011.78      54.09     5.346%
1993-12-31     466.45    1023.33      54.02     5.279%
1994-03-31     445.77     971.93      54.00     5.556%
1994-06-30     442.80     959.82      53.99     5.625%
1994-09-30     462.71     993.48      54.03     5.438%
1994-12-31     459.27     981.51      54.13     5.515%
1995-03-31     500.71    1061.35      54.31     5.117%
1995-06-30     544.75    1145.25      54.57     4.765%
1995-09-30     584.41    1222.56      54.93     4.493%
1995-12-31     615.93    1282.17      55.36     4.317%
1996-03-31     645.50    1332.03      55.78     4.187%
1996-06-30     670.63    1370.12      56.17     4.099%
1996-09-30     686.19    1395.38      56.57     4.054%
1996-12-31     756.79    1526.83      57.05     3.736%
1997-03-31     773.88    1552.20      57.70     3.717%
1997-06-30     887.30    1771.64      58.49     3.302%
1997-09-30     945.22    1880.59      59.36     3.157%
1997-12-31     936.46    1854.29      60.24     3.249%
1998-03-31    1095.44    2164.81      61.13     2.824%
1998-06-30    1133.20    2227.28      61.98     2.783%
1998-09-30    1044.75    2045.66      62.81     3.071%
1998-12-31    1229.23    2397.41      63.68     2.656%
1999-03-31    1282.80    2493.96      64.40     2.582%
1999-06-30    1315.31    2530.94      65.15     2.574%
1999-09-30    1277.36    2446.62      65.89     2.693%
1999-12-31    1469.25    2792.35      66.77     2.391%
2000-03-31    1498.58    2822.73      67.65     2.397%
2000-06-30    1454.60    2713.68      68.59     2.527%
2000-09-30    1436.51    2657.85      69.53     2.616%
2000-12-31    1320.28    2425.88      70.44     2.904%
2001-03-31    1160.33    2113.38      71.29     3.373%
2001-06-30    1224.38    2205.63      72.00     3.264%
2001-09-30    1040.94    1874.16      72.57     3.872%
2001-12-31    1161.02    2093.29      73.00     3.487%
2002-03-31    1147.39    2065.63      73.29     3.548%
2002-06-30     989.82    1760.42      73.58     4.180%
2002-09-30     827.37    1466.83      73.92     5.039%
2002-12-31     875.40    1544.71      74.31     4.811%
2003-03-31     863.50    1511.30      74.70     4.943%
2003-06-30     976.22    1699.98      74.95     4.409%
2003-09-30     996.85    1728.70      75.15     4.347%
2003-12-31    1095.89    1897.79      75.42     3.974%
2004-03-31    1108.06    1905.28      75.80     3.978%
2004-06-30    1134.43    1921.86      76.36     3.973%
2004-09-30    1110.11    1873.73      77.00     4.109%
2004-12-31    1211.92    2030.71      77.71     3.827%
2005-03-31    1171.42    1958.77      78.38     4.001%
2005-06-30    1191.57    1959.29      79.13     4.039%
2005-09-30    1228.81    1996.74      80.06     4.009%
2005-12-31    1248.29    2016.99      81.15     4.023%
2006-03-31    1294.87    2083.42      82.36     3.953%
2006-06-30    1270.20    2008.09      83.65     4.166%
2006-09-30    1335.85    2097.68      84.99     4.052%
2006-12-31    1418.30    2249.37      86.37     3.840%
2007-03-31    1420.86    2233.01      87.84     3.934%
2007-06-30    1503.35    2318.18      89.27     3.851%
2007-09-30    1526.75    2345.89      90.73     3.867%
2007-12-31    1478.49    2253.76      92.12     4.087%
2008-03-31    1315.22    1985.96      93.32     4.699%
2008-06-30    1278.38    1888.82      94.19     4.987%
2008-09-30    1213.27    1768.48      94.84     5.363%
2008-12-31     872.80    1305.71      95.31     7.300%
2009-03-31     815.94    1231.77      95.54     7.757%
2009-06-30     918.90    1373.90      94.94     6.911%
2009-09-30    1044.38    1549.31      93.97     6.065%
2009-12-31    1115.10    1648.52      92.85     5.632%
2010-03-31    1166.59    1720.57      92.36     5.368%
2010-06-30    1076.76    1579.06      92.38     5.850%
2010-09-30    1148.67    1683.83      92.51     5.494%
2010-12-31    1257.64    1837.58      92.78     5.049%
2011-03-31    1313.80    1901.83      93.11     4.896%
2011-06-30    1268.45    1798.39      93.61     5.205%
2011-09-30    1131.42    1598.20      94.26     5.898%
2011-12-31    1257.60    1778.25      95.06     5.346%
2012-03-31    1408.47    1976.64      96.01     4.857%
2012-06-30    1362.16    1895.11      97.07     5.122%
2012-09-30    1440.67    2001.16      98.16     4.905%
2012-12-31    1402.43    1946.45      99.21     5.097%
2013-03-31    1569.19    2165.60     100.17     4.625%
2013-06-30    1606.28    2206.30     101.08     4.581%
2013-09-30    1691.75    2314.22     101.95     4.406%
2013-12-31    1841.40    2524.73     102.97     4.079%
2014-03-31    1857.62    2531.77     104.42     4.124%
2014-06-30    1960.96    2639.43     105.99     4.015%
2014-09-30    1982.85    2663.78     107.55     4.037%
2014-12-31    2088.77    2824.88     109.21     3.866%
2015-03-31    2061.02    2812.09     110.99     3.947%
2015-06-30    2101.61    2828.22     112.65     3.983%
2015-09-30    1931.34    2592.83     114.17     4.403%
2015-12-31    2043.94    2754.27     115.58     4.196%
2016-03-31    2035.94    2745.54     116.54     4.245%
2016-06-30    2037.41    2715.24     117.34     4.322%
2016-09-30    2168.27    2878.57     118.11     4.103%
2016-12-31    2238.83    2964.92     118.76     4.005%
2017-03-31    2362.72    3103.94     119.34     3.845%
2017-06-30    2423.41    3166.90     119.92     3.787%
2017-09-30    2519.36    3279.88     120.46     3.673%
2017-12-31    2673.61    3466.64     121.02     3.491%
2018-03-31    2640.87    3394.14     121.65     3.584%
2018-06-30    2718.37    3457.95     122.41     3.540%
2018-09-30    2913.98    3695.28     123.31     3.337%
2018-12-31    2485.74    3151.38     124.47     3.950%
2019-03-31    2834.40    3587.27     125.82     3.507%
2019-06-30    2941.76    3676.72     127.44     3.466%
2019-09-30    2961.79    3690.67     129.09     3.498%
2019-12-31    3240.02    4028.49     131.02     3.252%
2020-03-31    2541.47    3145.97     132.94     4.226%
2020-06-30    3009.05    3750.19     134.98     3.599%
2020-09-30    3298.46    4061.07     136.69     3.366%
2020-12-31    3756.07    4615.88     138.47     3.000%
2021-03-31    3974.54    4832.92     140.11     2.899%
2021-06-30    4280.70    5085.32     141.88     2.790%
2021-09-30    4455.48    5207.83     144.21     2.769%
2021-12-31    4766.18    5483.81     147.07     2.682%
2022-03-31    4543.06    5120.79     149.45     2.919%
2022-06-30    3911.74    4279.76     151.92     3.550%
2022-09-30    3585.62    3871.70     154.17     3.982%
2022-12-31    3839.50    4098.37     155.79     3.801%
2023-03-31    4109.31    4368.29     157.32     3.601%
2023-06-30    4450.38    4680.14     158.66     3.390%
2023-09-30    4288.05    4466.40     160.16     3.586%
2023-12-31    4769.83    4967.89     161.97     3.260%
2024-03-31    5254.35    5414.69     163.96     3.028%
2024-06-30    5460.48    5596.32     165.97     2.966%
2024-09-30    5738.17    5829.31     168.09     2.884%
2024-12-31    5970.84    6051.70     170.19     2.812%
2025-03-31    5580.94    5602.23     172.30     3.075%
2025-04-25    5525.21    5525.21     172.98     3.131%

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