No. of Recommendations: 4
China doesn't want them to be making mischief.
LOL! Yes they do.
There was a reason the Chinese didn't lift a finger when the Houthis (backed, supplied and funded by Iran) started attacking shipping in the Red Sea: because we were the ones doing all the heavy lifting. Tied up ships, planes and munitions for months. You want to talk about accomplishing nothing? THAT accomplished nothing.
China laughed the entire time. Whole US Carrier battle group siting there, playing defense. A triple win:
1. Carriers aren't defensive weapons. They're strategic projectors of power.
2. Loads of time and energy expended, and for what?
3. The Houthis were able to do something no enemy had done to the US in decades: bring a carrier under direct fire. What if they had gotten lucky?
Literally everything you're saying about the situation now actually applied to the US Navy running around the Red Sea playing whack a mole.
Again, China doesn't want or need Iran to "project power" in the region. Flat out incorrect, see above.
To borrow your terminology, we've failed at the "mission kill" - because we haven't eliminated Teheran's ability to do the job they were doing.
Oh? They have drone carrying ships? Nuclear tipped ballistic missiles? Swarms of drones they can threaten others with?
So what did we gain? Iran's still going to be as firmly in China's corner as they were before, they're still going to fulfill all of the functions that China wanted and asked of them (supplying energy and being a diplomatic "b1tch" and being a customer of Chinese goods and investment). Even moreso.
...all the while lacking the offensive firepower they had not 2 weeks ago. With the entire GCC behind us. With a renewed license for us to smash up any and everything we want in Iran any time we want to. With a restless population. With a shattered leadership core. And many other things.
And here's your biggest misunderstanding:
Iran was of minimal military importance to China; they're important for economics, energy security, and diplomatic cooperation.
All those things - especially energy - are of VITAL importance miltarily to China.
If Iran wants to be openly hostile to the Gulf Nations and China starts something, think any of them will have any compunctions about sinking shipping bound for China? No.
And that means the Chinese have to devote resources to protect their energy flank. Resources they never would have to think about expending if Iran were to retain the power to intimidate its neighbors in the Gulf. That's all gone now.
And the Chinese know it. Energy security *is* national security. Period. Full stop.
