No. of Recommendations: 10
Not at all what you asked for, and out of date, but at least it's a pretty picture to look at.
http://www.stonewellfunds.com/SmoothedRealValue.pn...It
kind of shows book and price, both inflation adjusted.
It's an "adjusted" real book value per share based on the notion that any drop in book per share more than 3% is just a transient market dip hitting the equity portfolio, value probably didn't really drop much.
And the price figures are just the average real price in each calendar quarter, the idea being to eliminate meaningless short term noise.
The smooth line is just a 16-quarter WMA of the adjusted real book figures. Since that line is so smooth and isn't a bad proxy for value, the ratio of current price to the current point on that line is, unsurprisingly, quite predictive of forward returns.
http://www.stonewellfunds.com/PriceToTrendAndForwa...Jim
