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Author: tecmo   😊 😞
Number: of 31 
Subject: Earnings
Date: 04/26/2024 11:27 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/25/microsoft-msft-q3-...

A solid quarter for sure with EPS rising 20% over last year. I am less confident that earnings can continue to grow at this rate, I think a number closer to 15% is more likely.

Here are some numbers for those interested....

EPS		2.95	+20%	vs 2.82
Revenue $61.86 +17% vs 58.3B
Stock $390 +27% vs $368


Valuation (TTM)
Revenue : $236B
EPS : $11.56
Stock : $390

Forecast (Guesses) --> This time next year...
Revenue : $260B
EPS : $13.11
Stock : $415

My "model" assumes a contraction of PE back down to around 30 and a P/S just above 10 (from current levels of 36 and 12.7). MSFT is now my single largest individual holding and I don't think I would trim unless the stock traded well above $450 / share (which is possible - but unlikely) this quarter. My central expectation would be $385 / share at the end of this quarter.

tecmo
...

Reference : Stock traded up to $406 after the earnings release.



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