No. of Recommendations: 0
10.07% for SPY and 10.50% for DFSVX according to testfol.io
https://testfol.io/?s=8vwesonZVEW
Pretty impressive considering that there is no overlap and DFSVX has none of the Magnificent 7.
Although SPY had a -55% drawdown and DFSVX was worse at -67%.Yep, SCV is more volatile than SPY, which I'm hoping to make work in my favor: SPY is down 17.6% from its high as of Friday. DFSVX is down 25.8%. Stocks as a rule become correlated in dropping all at once during the bear capitulations. Say the S&P 500 drops another 10% of its peak in the coming week and we get a cluster of major bottom firings. DFSVX will probably be down more, say 12-15%. Even though I don't really think that would be the end of the bear, and the S&P would still be quite overvalued, SCV would be under average value by something like 35-40% and that would be a very good purchase point.
If Trump decides to take a clue from the market (and every economist on the planet) and declares victory and backs off the tariffs to something more sane, maybe it won't be too much worse than that. I have no faith that will be the case, but I am very worried about missing the turn and next thing I know I've made a breakeven or losing trade because I missed a rocket off the bottom.
I could make the trade today and do well, but I feel sure there's more on the table that can be taken safely before a rebound. I don't expect Trump to give up on his biggest policy initiative too quickly.
