Post #814 by weatherman on the Macroeconomic Trends and Risks board

Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks

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what we are seeing appears to be a heavy volatility skew towards a voting machine than a weighing machine, possibly spurred by participant behavior and feedback\momentum.
index funds have not thwarted this, as they are also tools in daily trading by both retail and institutions. what is unclear is how much trading of passive vehicles is going on in retail retirement, accustomed to constant inflows for american equity.

short term news appears exponentially over-weighted and more so on a relative basis.
daily\weekly\monthly moves 'matter' more than divergent long term views of 'everything will work out for buy&hold' versus 'the gop never had, nor will have, a viable economic strategy they can execute'.

regarding the longer term, many credible analysts have stated a technical recession is baked on, given the record number of soft indicators.
yes, there is a reason to be skeptical, given many such employed claimed the same 2020-2024.

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