No. of Recommendations: 2
I genuinely find it hard to see how removing Maduro and no one else is likely to have the types of impacts you seem to think will flow from this.
Guess we'll have to wait and see!
That's just a way of avoiding a substantive response to the fact that none of the macro factors affecting how Venezuela is going to behave in the future have changed.
And that's not what's happening in any of these threads: I've given you chapter and verse on why I think that's wrong. Multiple examples. You don't agree with them, and that's cool...but no one can say the discussion hasn't been had.
And that's certainly one way to view the world - but it's a worldview that's inconsistent with your above statements that the opposition has been energized and that the international community is now pressuring for elections actually mattering at all.
No it isn't. Realpolitik is about being ruthlessly pragmatic at all times. Treating the world the way you wished it was is a sure fire way to screw things up. Bush43 learned that lesson the hard way in Iraq.
Plus, my point - again - is that there's no reason to think that the scumbags running Venezuela are now our scumbags. They're not.
And no one has said they are. What I have done is point out how the situation is not the same as it was before Jan 3rd. Which it isn't.
....and now they have a pretty clear indication that while we're willing to do a "surgical precision" operation against their government, we are not willing to replace them. We're not going to deny them the money they need to spread their graft around. We're not going to bring in the opposition leader-in-exile to replace them. We're not going to send in troops - or even civilian leaders - to set foot in the country. We don't have a plan on how the country will function if the military dictatorship was replaced.
Who says we need to replace? Kill or capture can do just fine.
What's also not been mentioned on this board is the CIA's assessment of Machado: they don't think she's ready to run the country, which may have affected Trump's calculus.
Funny thing about military dictatorships. They tend to have a follow-the-strongman leader mentality. Lopez can bray all he wants but he's alive because we don't care enough about him to off him. How strong of a StrongMan is that?
So, they will continue to respond to the incentives they face, pursue their own interests, and act in a manner that preserves their power, in much the same way they did before the abduction.
Indeed. What you're missing is that they have new incentives in place. Not pissing off the United States is one of them.
I don't think Trump gives a rat's ass about Venezuela. I think Trump views them as being a part of one the a) Problem b) Potential Problem or c) Not A Problem categories. As they were on the 2nd they were in the b) category trending to a). Now they're in the b) trending to c) direction. As long as that arrow points in the Not Problem direction then he's likely very happy.
But it's not going to do much to China, or change very much about what happens in the day-to-day on the ground in Venezuela, to any great extent.
We're in a Cold War with China. Have been for years. They don't smuggle biotoxins in here (no, I don't mean the odd grad student we pick up) they don't buy farmland next to military bases and Verizon's cell phones and various power infrastructure don't get hacked into or taken offline for no reason. They don't steal the personal info of hundreds of thousands of government employees (who all have security clearances) for no reason. They don't go after genomic and health records of Americans for no reason.
They make their moves. Some big, some small. We make our moves. Some big, some small. It all adds up.
