No. of Recommendations: 8
Over the next 5 years will the S&P 500 with an earnings yield of 3.5% outperform 3-month T-Bills with a yield-to-maturity of 5.4%? How about BRK-B? Thanks for your input. I think the first problem you'll have with the comparison is that 3-month T bill rates are extremely unlikely to stay as high as they are. They're noticeably higher than inflation at the moment, which is a relatively rare thing. For the time being, I like T-bills, and I have a lot. But I think that preference will change.
I expect Berkshire to do better than the S&P, but then I'm predictable. This is the Berkshire board.
But part of that advantage is that I expect the performance of Berkshire to be very much more predictable. The range out possible outcomes is quite a bit narrower. I think we will probably see inflation plus 7-8% for a few more years as a trend of value generation, but in any case I think one can count on inflation plus 6-7%. Perhaps minus a small one time flat spot--maybe 6%?--as valuations are currently a hair above the average of the last 15 years.
As for what to expect from the S&P 500, that's a very tough game to play. Mainly because it seems that valuations can do anything. It's not so hard to imagine what the value generation will be for S&P 500 firms, but without any confidence at all that the valuation multiples will be within plus or minus 15% of some sort of normal, the actual market return figure is unknowable. But for a starting line of thought on what makes sense as a central expectation, I think this is an excellent line of thinking by Baybrooke
https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=-2&previousPostID=5...Jim
