No. of Recommendations: 1
I'm looking forward to seeing your updated IV and growth estimates. Tilson's latest estimate, from March, is $801K/A-share. Morningstar's estimate, from Oct 31, is $765K/A-share. With BV and IV growing 10.5%/year since Dec 1998, I expect Morningstar's updated estimate as of today to be about $805K/A-share. My own estimate, FWIW, is $790K/A-share, which corresponds to 1.55x BV, although I would not argue with 1.45x BV or 1.65x BV.
I'd be especially interested in seeing your estimate for BHE. Morningstar estimates BHE to be worth $59,600/A-share, or $85.7B. This figure is closer to the $87B valuation implied by the amount paid for Greg Abel's shares in 2022 than it is to the $49B valuation implied by the amount paid for shares owned by Walter Scott's estate in 2024.
As to growth, my best guess would be the 10.5%/year history of the last 27 years, although when I'm planning how long my retirement savings will last, I lop about 2-3 percentage points per year off that figure.
Best to all,
rrr12345
