*                         11/4     11/11    11/18    11/25/24
S&P 500 Index             5728.80  5995.54  5870.62  5969.34
Trailing 12 month PE      27.99    29.08    28.37    28.76
Trail Earnings yield      3.57%    3.44%    3.52%    3.48%
Forward 12 month PE       22.96    24.42    23.89    24.16
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.35%    4.10%    4.19%    4.14%
90 day tbill yield        4.61     4.63     4.60     4.63
10 year tbond yield       4.37%    4.30%    4.43%    4.41%
Arezi Ratio               1.29     1.35     1.30     1.33
Fed Ratio                 1.00     1.05     1.06     1.07

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 53%
stocks, 47% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 33%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 80%.

Elan

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