No. of Recommendations: 1
Thanks for sharing, EV. Just one comment: You are correct to value the cash, T-Bills and fixed maturity assets at face value, including the $30B in cash held in reserve. These assets are worth the interest stream to be received, plus terminal value, discounted at a discount rate equal to the total annualized return. That comes out to today's ptice. For example, a $100, two-year note currently priced at $100 and paying 4.9% interest will pay an interest stream of 4.9% per year, with a terminal value of $100. When discounted at the total annualized return of 4.9%, the present value will come out to $100.
Same thing for equity securities. These assets are worth the dividend stream to be received, plus terminal value, discounted at a discount rate equal to the total annualized return, say 7%. If the market has valued the equities correctly, then the discounted present value comes out to market value. If the market has overvalued one of the equity securities, then a case can be made for applying a haircut to that security, but bearing in mind that these securities are available for sale at today's price. I am hopeful that Berkshire's equity portfolio will return more than 7%, but whatever the future return turns out to be, applying a discount rate equal to the annualized total return to the dividends and terminal value will bring the present value back to today's price.
