No. of Recommendations: 11
I was updating my global travel guide ("Take the High Road - A Primer For the Independent Traveler") - a task as thankless and lengthy as painting the Brooklyn Bridge.
Sevastopol, Ukraine
I wrote the following paragraph in 2009:
There will absolutely be trouble when the Ukrainians “ask” the Russians to close their naval base at Sevastopol as the port is deemed strategically vital by Russia and I would not be surprised to see Russia annex this portion of Ukraine (Sevastopol and enough of the rest of the Caucasus to set up a defensive perimeter). I do not think Russia wants to invade Ukraine itself, but requires it as a buffer between it and the rest of Europe. The more Western pointing Ukraine becomes, the less they are serving this strategic interest of Russia – and the more nervous Russia will become.
I wrote the following paragraph in 2024:
Well, it took another five years, until 2014, for Russia to take Crimea and challenge Ukraine over an additional portion of their country. It took an additional eight years for Russia to decide that it was time to completely neutralize Ukraine as an asset to the “West” and they invaded in 2022.
While the current war is not resolved at this point, what bothers me is that, if a simple tourist (moi) can make the above prediction years ahead of time, why does its eventual happening come as such a shock and why was the West so unprepared?
Jeff
