No. of Recommendations: 5
As I said, I do see your point. I even agree with it somewhat. My issue is that I've never seen a really good way to assess value. DCF is probably the best, but it depends on inputs that you can't know (so you have to guess/estimate). If your inputs are off, your valuation will be off.
Usually I try to follow solid businesses, and if the stock dips I will say to myself "it's on sale". Sure. Good time to buy, unless the entire market goes down. Then the "sale" shares might appear to be expensive. Obviously, we're speaking in generalities. IMO, TSLA became ridiculously expensive. But it just kept going up anyway. I wish I had bought the expensive shares at $200 before they shot up to $1000. But I didn't. (And it's split since then.) The most I believe I can do reasonably reliably is assess the business as it stands today, and invest based on that. COST will never give me 50% returns, but it is -for now- a juggernaut. Whatever the stock price is doing, the business is going well. So I'm long COST. (for example) I take on more risk with something like DDOG, but it's business seems to be solid also. So I'm long DDOG with the knowledge that it will be subject to more volatility as a growth play.
I can't and won't speak for Saul. He's all growth plays, and on his board he makes his own rules. Just like TMF makes their own rules on their boards (e.g. salty language, politics and OT posts, etc). FWIW, over the past 5 or so years, Saul has produced impressive returns. Even with the recession last year. He's doing what's right for him, and more power to him. As I said in my previous post, I have a couple of Saul stocks, but most of my portfolio is not-Saul stocks. It's what I'm comfortable with. Which everyone has to determine for themselves. I spend very little time worrying about valuation because, almost without fail, when I did that I ended up "missing out". YMMV.
