No. of Recommendations: 0
For those who use timing methodologies, do you ever go back and do an analysis
I have not made an analysis including taxes and dividends. The former has been de minimus until recently, and the latter is hard to work out since I only use ETFs. But my experience has been that trades in and out of cash have rarely produced significant gains or losses. The entire benefit for me has been concentrated in having avoided disaster in 2001 and (especially) 2008. There is, needlessly to say, no guarantee that I will be three times lucky.
I honestly don't see much difference between raising cash based on valuation versus doing so in response to market momentum. Both seek "inefficiencies" that can be exploited by those who put their minds to it.
Baltassar
