Really nice idea, though. 14 times average earnings from 2020 to 2022, steady grower, average 4.5%/year share count reduction since 2013, close to its lowest price in the last year, safe haven in a recession... what's not to like? Why don't I own this?

Other than the gods trying to make me look foolish yet again, I can't see any reason it shouldn't work out well.
The 10 year rate of EPS growth has been 16.5%/year.
I'm not clear on why Value Line thinks that's about to drop to 5.5%/year over the next 3-5 years on the back of 6.5%/year sales growth, but even if it does the outlook for returns is pretty good.
(their price target range and time frame range works out to an average return of 15.9%/year, plus or minus a lot)

One thought:
For this type of stock I find it's important to make up your own mind about the likely value before looking at the current stock price. Don't assume the market knows something you don't.
Sure, they have reduced guidance for this year.
But always invert: if it were trading at a premium valuation multiple everybody would agree that it was deserved.

Jim

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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