*                         3/18     3/25     4/1      4/8/24
S&P 500 Index             5117.09  5235.15  5254.35  5204.34
Trailing 12 month PE      26.49    27.10    27.24    27.10
Trail Earnings yield      3.78%    3.69%    3.67%    3.69%
Forward 12 month PE       22.68    23.20    23.24    22.94
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.41%    4.31%    4.30%    4.36%
90 day tbill yield        5.48     5.46     5.46     5.43
10 year tbond yield       4.31%    4.22%    4.20%    4.39%
Arezi Ratio               1.45     1.48     1.49     1.47
Fed Ratio                 0.98     0.98     0.98     1.01

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 46%
stocks, 54% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 26%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 76%.

Elan

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