The tariffs are mostly a sideshow, because the real damage has come from the removal of all trust and the breaking of treaties and alliances, and because that damage is so much more lasting. Trading through a tariff is merely expensive, but trading with and supporting an enemy is odious.

I think you're greatly exaggerating this point. Countries trade with political adversaries all the time. The trade relationship between the U.S. and China is a prominent example, where there is no love or trust lost but it is the largest trading partnership in the world.

Nonetheless, I agree with your general gloomy outlook for the U.S. economy. You seem to focus your outlook on trade, but America is doing much more to shoot itself in the foot. The ICE raids are most visible right now, decimating the labor force in agriculture, personal services, restaurants, hotels, etc. We can also expect a devastating economic effect from the fiscal actions of the Big Beautiful Bill. Set aside for the moment that millions of Americans will lose their health care insurance and their food assistance. The macro-economic effect will be similar to that of the Hoover administration at the start of the Great Depression. Economic dogma at the time said that fiscal constraint is the right answer to an economic downturn, which resulted in a deepening of the depression. This year, drastic cutting of government expenditures will have a similar effect, made only worse by the fact that there is no intention to actually narrow the fiscal budget deficit. Rather, the "benefits" of the budget cuts will all flow to the top 1% of income earners who tend to be hoarders rather than spenders.

Elan