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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: DTB   😊 😞
Number: of 15062 
Subject: Re: '24 storm season forecast
Date: 05/23/2024 4:34 PM
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Correction--meant "blow the storms EAST" not west obviously

It depends what the rest of the sentence says. We'll be ok if strong winds blow the storms East; we'll be in trouble if strong winds blow the storms West. The storms we mostly worry about are in the Atlantic, and so we who live on the East coast (or provide insurance coverage to such people) don't want those stoms to be blown West towards us.

Of course storms are insurance non-events if they don't hit the (East) coast, but a bad storm year with twice as many bad storms should generally mean that we have twice the risk of sustaining one that hits a big population centre.

But I suspect the risk factors cited in the report ("near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation") have been pretty well known for a while, and so I am optimistic that the rates Berkshire obtains for this coverage are commensurate with the risk. And in general, more risk means more business, which in the long-term average means more earnings, so we probably shouldn't complain. (Although we can fret...)

dtb
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