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Personal Finance Topics / Retirement Investing
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Author: AdrianC ⎊  😊 😞
Number: of 598 
Subject: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal
Date: 01/29/2025 9:29 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
An interesting method for estimating retirement spending:

Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW) is a financial planning tool that implements the lifecycle model of investing and spending from economics.

Long thread on Bogleheads:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3...

The author just appeared on the Rational Reminder podcast. Thread here:
https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-34...

There's a spreadsheet and an online planner:
https://tpawplanner.com/

The method uses expected returns and expected longevity in calculating a variable withdrawal rate. It's a good deal more sophisticated than a simple SWR (like the 4% 'rule'). With so many unknowns it may not be an improvement.

The default expected returns in the planner are based on current valuations (CAPE for stocks and TIPS yields for bonds).

Suspect some folks will not like that - likely will give lower than 4% withdrawal rate for long retirements. I haven't thrown our numbers into it yet.
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