From the 2016 Growth-Trend Timing(GTT) paper.
"GTT directs the moving average strategy [sell signal] to turn itself off during periods when those signals are unanimously disconfirming recession, i.e., periods where they are all confirming a positive fundamental economic backdrop."

The two indicators are Industrial Production: Total Index (INDPRO) "Next Release Date: Mar 18, 2025" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO

and Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales (RRSFS) "Next Release Date: Mar 17, 2025" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRSFS



If both are up year-over-year, that disconfirms a recession.
If either is down over the last year, that signals a possible recession.
Note that the opposite of "disconfirms" is not "confirms". The opposite is "don't know".

If a recession is disconfirmed, then you ignore the 200 day (= 43 weeks = 10 months) SMA sell signal. Otherwise you obey the SMA sell signal.

The SMA buy signal does not look at the FRED indicators.

Mechanical Investing FAQ

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