It might work.
The problem is that you have to buy enough time for the thesis to work out, which might take many years.
Even if you can find options that long dated, they might cost so much that the rate of return isn't that great...especially when weighted by the risk of failure.

Unfortunately, as I've learned, you can be absolutely right about an investment insight but still find that it isn't really worth doing ; )

The secret to this approach, I think, is very small positions with very high payouts, no matter how remote the possibility of payout.
Lottery tickets are a bad return on average, but the entry cost is very low and the payoff is very large, so it is almost rational to put a tiny fraction of your portfolio in them.
"Heads I win, tails I don't lose much" is arguably a useful bet even with terrible chances of a win, provided the loss is small enough to take in stride.

Jim

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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