No. of Recommendations: 10
... that would be a five year return of inflation + 10.70%/year compounded.
Sorry, I forgot to add the dividend yield. Add 1.50%/year to get a real total return forecast over five years of inflation + 12.2%/year compounded.
On the back of this envelope, anyway.
That's high enough that you could put in some substantially more conservative assumptions and still get a nice return.
The problem is if I've missed an existential risk that could lead to permanent loss of capital, but those are blessedly rare for firms that are making so darned much money all the time.
And today's price seems to offer at least a thin margin of safety.
Jim
