No. of Recommendations: 9
So after they'd built a bomb and got off sanctions...we'd reimpose sanctions again. Great plan.
No. Under the JCPOA, they had to stay about a year away from having weapons-grade uranium. So if they decided to restart higher levels of enrichment, we could reimpose sanctions again before they built the bomb. The point was to move them physically a year away from being able to have weapons-grade material so that they physically couldn't build a bomb with where they were. Rather than where we ended up once Trump withdrew from the deal - where they were two weeks away from breakout.
Again, Trump's plan was not a great plan.
No. The deal was fatally flawed as I've pointed out 1000 times before. The point is that Iran as presently constituted should never have a nuclear weapon. The JCPOA at best kicked the can down the road. At best.
As will anything that comes out of this war as well. Whatever they agree to, Iran will be able to restart their nuclear program anytime in the future. Trump can't do anything different than what Obama did - push them further away in time from breakout, but not eliminate their ability to start that clock again whenever they want.
And it said NOTHING about their ballistic missile programs.
Do you really think that what comes out of this war is going to be any better? Iran now knows that their missile programs are vastly more effective in protecting their security than almost anything else - their ability to strike regional energy infrastructure was a better defense than their air force or navy. That's likely to be their top defensive priority coming out of this war. Their first step after the 12-day war was to replenish their ballistic missiles back up to about 3K or so - that'll likely be the response here as well.
As I've explained in the past, the government is focused on China and doing this now means we don't have as big of an Iranian threat at our backs when that kicks off. You're free to disagree - as you will - and that's your opinion.
Thanks. Again, honestly, we're likely to have a bigger threat. Iran has seized the strait, which is a vastly bigger strategic threat than anything we've faced from them before. They're almost certainly going to learn the lessons of this war and devote much more of their military resources to missiles and drones. They're vastly more likely to decide that staying just below breakout is a fool's game and instead rush straight to nuclear weapons once this is all over.
