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"Hear (sic) are year by year results for the 40 HTD 60 backtest, the version without dividends.
Includes reinvested dividends, and allows 0.4% per round trip for trading costs.
Period Screen S&P Diff
1997 32.2 27.9 4.3
1998 42.8 34.5 8.3
1999 16.3 18.4 -2.1
2000 23.9 -10.8 34.7
2001 -6.3 -8.0 1.7
2002 -16.5 -18.9 2.4
2003 23.0 23.0 0.0
2004 15.3 8.9 6.3
2005 10.4 7.5 2.9
2006 16.7 13.8 2.9
2007 6.1 1.9 4.3
2008 -27.8 -32.9 5.1
2009 39.5 25.5 14.0
2010 20.5 14.2 6.3
2011 4.2 2.5 1.7
2012 14.7 17.1 -2.5
2013 28.7 27.6 1.0
2014 18.7 12.9 5.8
2015 1.5 1.9 -0.4
2016 18.5 14.4 4.1
2017 31.5 21.8 9.7
2018 -2.7 -3.5 0.9
2019 34.5 29.9 4.6
2020 31.0 16.9 14.1
Jan-Mar 13.7 9.8 3.8 (not annualized)
Overall 14.8 9.3 5.5
So, from the backtest anyway, when it underperforms it usually isn't by much.
The long run advantage is heavily flattered by 2000. Best to ignore that.
In reality I wouldn't expect an advantage of more than 3 points as a wild guess."
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