No. of Recommendations: 7
Can someone explain to me why the market is going up like a rocket?
If by the market you mean the S&P 500, it's rising because bottom-up as-reported GAAP earnings estimates for future years keep trending higher with ongoing upward revisions. This is the primary driver. It's always worked this way. Attributing the gains to imaginary forces or narratives is missing the fundamentals. Here are the latest bottom-up consensus for S&P 500 EPS in calendar year 2026 compiled from various sources.
Low end: ~$294–$310
Mid-range: ~$310–$323
High end: ~$330+
For context, nominal S&P 500 earnings were around $100 per share about 10 years ago. They first crossed $200 in CY 2024. Now we're looking at 300+ just two years later. This has been an astonishing pace of earnings growth. The market is simply reflecting this reality.
For most of us, the S&P 500 will likely be trading between 10k and 20k by the time we're on our deathbeds, depending on how much time we have left. Of course, it won't be a straight line. There will be plenty of dips and volatility along the way, but go up it will. Keeping this big-picture view in mind I feel reduces a lot of unnecessary hand-wringing as the index continues to climb.
