Great! Thank you. This table is more than I did hope for :-)

it seems to achieve its goal: identifying the stretches which are relatively safe
Looking at that table and an S&P chart I can't see that. Such a signal is useful only if it helps to avoid the times with the big drawdowns, right? Which requires that it does not wrongly identifies those as "relatively safe/bullish".

I tried to compare your table with an S&P chart. Apart from the current bear in that chart since the start of your table, 2009, I see 3 "biggies" where the S&P lost 15% or more:

- The middle of 2011 (+-3 months from the middle of the year)
- The second half of 2018
- And as the real "biggie" of course the start of 2020

But I can't see from the table that it would have avoided these stretches. As you say it's "bullish for around 5 months after any market top, so all the 'end of bull' signals are late" (Thanks for the link. So it's your famous 99 day rule :)

But as all bears that happened during the interval of your table (apart from the current one) were not longer than those 5 months I can't see what use it would have had since the start of your table in 2009 as it would have stayed "bullish" during the full time each of those 3 bears lasted.

Where am I wrong (bad flu since Jan 1; brain not working properly)?

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